Draft 2b: Tourism and recreation

This is the second version of the second-order draft. Compared to the first version, 50 papers published since the first-order draft were reviewed and, where appropriate, cited. Only one paper had something new to say but not in a particularly convincing manner. Some ten papers mentioned "climate change" and "tourism" in the abstract but were in fact about something else. The remaining forty or so papers reinforce conclusions drawn earlier.

10.6.       Recreation and tourism

Recreation and tourism is one of the largest sectors of the world economy. In 2011, it accounted for 9% of global expenditure, and employed 260 million people (WTTC, 2011). Supply of tourism services is the dominant activity in many regional economies.

Recreation and tourism encompass many activities, some of which are more sensitive to weather and climate than others: compare sunbathing to angling, gambling, business seminars, family visits, and pilgrimage. Climate change would affect the place, time and nature of these activities.

There is a large literature on the impact of climate change on tourism (Gössling et al., 2012; Pang et al., 2013; Scott et al., 2012). Some studies focus on the changes in the behavior of tourists, that is, the demand for recreation and tourism services (see 10.6.1). Other studies look at the implications for tourist operators and destinations, that is, the supply of recreation and tourism services (see 10.6.2). A few studies consider the interactions between changes in supply and demand (see 10.6.3).

10.6.1.    Recreation and tourism demand

Conventionally, recreation does not involve an overnight stay whereas tourism does. That implies that recreation, unlike tourism, is done close to home (while leisure is done at home). Whereas tourists, to a degree, chose the climate of their holidays, recreationists do not (although climate is a consideration in the choice where to live). Tourists would adapt to climate change by changing the location, timing and activities of their holidays; recreationists would adapt only timing and activities (Smith, 1990).

10.6.1.1.        Recreation

There has been no research on systematic differences of recreational behaviour due to differences in climate at large spatial scales. The impact of climate change on recreation is therefore largely unknown. The economic impact is probably limited, as people are more likely to change the composition rather than the level of their time and money spent on recreation. For instance, (Shaw and Loomis, 2008) argue that climate change would increase boating, golfing and beach recreation at the expense of skiing.

There are case studies of the impact of climate change on recreation. (Buckley and Foushee, 2012) find that a trend toward earlier visits to US national parks between 1979 and 2008. They argue this is due to climate change, but do not rigorously test this hypothesis nor control for other explanations. (Dempson et al., 2001) note that the salmon fishery in Newfoundland is closed during hot weather and low water levels. (Ahn et al., 2000) study the impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, and (Whitehead et al., 2009) the effect of sea level rise on sea shore fishing in North Carolina, finding a substantial decrease in the recreational value of these activities. (Daugherty et al., 2011) conclude that climate change will make it more difficult to guarantee adequate water levels for boating and angling in artificial reservoirs. (Pouta et al., 2009) project a reduction in cross-country skiing in Finland, particularly among women, the lower classes, and urban dwellers. (Shih et al., 2009) find that weather affects the demand for ski lift trips. One could expect people to adopt other ways of enjoying themselves but such alternatives were excluded from these studies. There are positive effects too. (Richardson and Loomis, 2005) find that climate change would make trips to the Rocky Mountain National Park more enjoyable. (Scott and Jones, 2006; Scott and Jones, 2007) foresee an increase in golf in Canada due to climate change, (Kulshreshtha, 2011) sees positive impacts on Canadian recreation in general, and (Coombes et al., 2009) predict an increase in beach tourism in East Anglia. (Graff Zivin and Neidell, 2010) find that people recreate indoors when the weather is inclement. (Scott et al., 2007) estimate the relationship between visitors to Waterton Lakes National Park and weather variables for eight years of monthly observations; and use this to project an increase in visitor numbers due to climate change. A survey among current visitors indicates that a deterioration of the quality of nature would reduce visitor numbers.

10.6.1.2.        Tourism

Climate (Becken and Hay, 2007; WTO and UNEP, 2008) and weather (Day et al., 2013; Falk, 2013; Førland et al., 2012; Rossello, 2011; Rosselló-Nadal et al., 2010; Álvarez-Díaz and Rosselló-Nadal, 2010) are important factors in tourist destination choice, and the tourist sector is susceptible to extreme weather (Forster et al., 2012; Forster et al., 2012; Hamzah et al., 2012; Tsai et al., 2012). (Eijgelaar et al., 2010), for instance, argues that so-called “last chance tourism” is a strong pull for tourists to visit Antarctica to admire the glaciers while they still can. (Farbotko, 2010; Prideaux and Mcnamara, 2012) use a similar mechanism to explain the rise in popularity of Tuvalu as a destination choice, but (Huebner, 2012) find no impact of future climate change on current travel choices. (Taylor and Ortiz, 2009) show that domestic tourists in the UK often respond to past weather. The hot summer of 2003 had a positive impact on revenues of the tourist sector. (Denstadli et al., ) find that tourists in the Arctic do not object to the weather in the Arctic. (Gössling et al., 2006) reaches the same conclusion for tourists on Zanzibar, and (Moreno, 2010) for tourists in the Mediterranean.

(Maddison, 2001) estimates a statistical model of the holiday destinations of British tourists, (Lise and Tol, 2002) for Dutch tourists and (Bigano et al., 2006) for international tourists from 45 countries; these models control for as other variables as possible. Tourists have a clear preference for the climate that is currently found in Southern France, Northern Italy and Northern Spain. People from hot climates care more about the climate in which they spend their holidays than people from cool climates. (Bujosa and Rosselló, 2012) study destination choice within Spain, and find the climate change would induce a northward shift.

However, whereas (Bigano et al., 2006) find regularity in revealed preferences, (Scott et al., 2008b) find pronounced differences in stated preferences between types of people. The impact of climate change on tourism demand may be more complicated than suggest by the econometric analyses reviewed above (Gössling and Hall, 2006).

(Bigano et al., 2007; Hamilton et al., 2005a; Hamilton et al., 2005b) use the above econometric analyses to construct a simulation model of domestic and international tourism. (Hamilton and Tol, 2007) downscale the national results of these studies to the regions of selected countries. The advantage of such a model is that it considers the simultaneous change in the attractiveness of all potential holiday destinations (Dawson and Scott, 2013). The disadvantage is its stylized representation of the effect of climate on destination choice. Two main findings emerge. First, climate change would drive tourists to higher latitudes and altitudes. International tourist arrivals would fall, relative to the scenario without warming, in hotter countries, and rise in colder countries. Tourists from Northwestern Europe, the main origin worldwide of international travelers at present, would be more inclined to spend the holiday in their home country, so that the total number of international tourists falls. Second, the impact of climate change is dominated by the impact of population growth and, particularly, economic growth. In the worst affected countries, climate change slows down, but nowhere reverses, growth in the tourism sector.

10.6.2.    Recreation and tourism supply

There are a number of biometeorological studies of the impact of climate change on tourism. (Yu et al., 2009a) find that Alaska has become more attractive over the last 50 years, and Florida less attractive to tourists. (Yu et al., 2009b) conclude that the climate for sightseeing has improved in Alaska, while the climate for skiing has deteriorated. (Scott et al., 2004) show that cClimate change would make Mexico less attractive to tourists, and Canada more attractive. Florida and Arizona would lose market share in US tourism. (Perry, 2006) speculates that the hot summer of 2003 had a negative impact on tourism in the Mediterranean. (Matzarakis et al., 2010) construct a composite index of temperature, humidity, wind speed and cloud cover, and use this to map tourism potential. (Lin and Matzarakis, 2008; Lin and Matzarakis, 2011) apply the index to Taiwan and Eastern China. (Endler and Matzarakis, 2010a; Endler and Matzarakis, 2010b; Endler and Matzarakis, 2011) use an index to study the Black Forest in Germany in detail, highlighting the differences between summer and winter tourism, and between high and low altitudes; the latter aspect is thoroughly investigated by (Endler et al., 2010). (Matzarakis and Endler, 2010; Zaninović and Matzarakis, 2009) use this method to study Freiburg and Hvar. (Matzarakis et al., 2007) project this potential into the future, finding that the Mediterranean will probably become less attractive to tourists. (Amelung and Viner, 2006; Amelung and Moreno, 2012; Amengual et al., 2012; Giannakopoulos et al., 2011; Hein et al., 2009; Perch-Nielsen et al., 2009) reach the same conclusion, but also point out that Mediterranean tourism may shift from summer to the other seasons. (Giannakopoulos et al., 2011) notes that coastal areas in Greece may be affected more than inland areas because, although temperature would be lower, humidity would be higher. (Moreno and Amelung, 2009), on the other hand, conclude that climate change will not have a major impact (before 2050) on beach tourism in the Mediterranean because sunbathers like it hot (Moreno, 2010; Rutty and Scott, 2010). (Amelung et al., 2007) use a weather index for a global study of the impact of climate change on tourism, finding shifts from equator to pole, summer to spring and autumn, and low to high altitudes. (Perch-Nielsen, 2010) combines a meteorological indicator of exposure with indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. She uses this to rank the vulnerability of beach tourism in 51 countries. India stands out as the most vulnerable, and Cyprus as the least vulnerable.

The main criticism of most biometeorological studies is that the predicted gradients and changes in tourism attractiveness have rarely been tested to observations of tourist behaviour. (De Freitas et al., 2008) validate their proposed meteorological index to survey data. (Moreno et al., 2008) and (Ibarra, 2011) use video of beach occupancy to test meteorological indices for beach tourism. (Gómez-Martín, 2006) tests meteorological indices against visitor numbers and occupancy rates. All four studies find that weather and climate affects tourists, but in a different matter than typically assumed by biometeorologists.

Studies on the supply side often focus on ski tourism. (Abegg and Elsasser, 1996) is one of the earliest papers. Warming of would raise the altitude of snow-reliable resorts, and fewer resorts would be snow-reliable (Hendrikx et al., 2012; Steger et al., 2012). (Elsasser and Bürki, 2002) argue that artificial snow-making cannot fully offset the loss in natural snowfall in the Swiss Alps. (Schmidt et al., 2012) show that snow-making is less successful in lower areas, although that is the current strategy of operators in Austria (Morrison and Pickering, 2012; Wolfsegger et al., 2008). (Hamilton et al., 2007) highlight the importance of “backyard snow” to induce potential skiers to visit ski slopes. (Pickering et al., 2010) find that skiers in Australia prefer natural snow over artificial snow. From a series of interviews, (Hill et al., 2010) find that tourist operators in the Swiss Alps seek to maintain the status quo through adaptation, rather than search for viable alternatives to ski tourism; and argue that better coordination is needed for adaptation to be successful. (Scott and McBoyle, 2007) highlight that there are many options to adapt to a loss of snow for skiing. (Hoffmann et al., 2009) use a survey of ski lift operators in the Swiss Alps. They find that the need for adaptation exceeds the ability to adapt and that adaptation is more prevalent on higher slopes (which are less vulnerable). (Scott et al., 2006) study the impact of climate change on ski areas in eastern North America. Even with snowmaking, climate change could be an existential threat to 3 of the 6 ski areas by 2050; and climate change would lead to a contraction in each area in each scenario. (Dawson et al., 2009) use past analogues to study the impact of future climate change on ski tourism in the Northeastern USA. They find that small and very large resorts will be hit hardest, and low-lying ones. (Scott et al., 2008a) find that snowmobiling would have disappeared from the Northeastern USA by the end of the 21st century. (Mcboyle et al., 2007) find the same for the Canadian lowlands. (Matzarakis et al., 2012)Artificial snowmaking would halt the decline of ski resorts, but water scarcity and the costs of snowmaking would be increasingly large problems. (Scott et al., 2003) reach the same conclusion for southern Ontario, (Scott et al., 2007) for Quebec, (Hendrikx and Hreinsson, 2012) for New Zealand, (Steiger and Mayer, 2008) for Tyrol, and (Pons-Pons et al., 2012) for Andorra. (Bicknell and Mcmanus, 2006) study adaptation for ski resorts in Southeastern Australia. They note that resorts may continue to be economically viable in the absence of snow by focusing on alternative activities. (Pickering and Buckley, 2010) note that artificial snow-making may be infeasible and uneconomic at the scale required to offset the loss of natural snow in Australia, and argue for a reorientation towards summer tourism and residential property development. (Moen and Fredman, 2007) find that alpine ski resorts in Sweden would become economically unviable, and that alternative livelihoods need to be developed. (Tervo, 2008) finds that the shortening of the Finnish ski season would be too limited to affect the economic viability of tourist operators, but (Landauer et al., 2012) find that Finnish ski operators would find it difficult to convince their clients of the need to adapt. (Serquet and Rebetez, 2011) find that the Swiss Alps attract more tourists during hot summers, and argue that climate change would structurally improve the mountains as a summer tourism destination. (Matzarakis et al., 2012) also argue that a proper assessment considers all seasons, using Austria as an example. (Bourdeau, 2009) argue along the same lines for the French Alps, stressing the importance of non-tourism alternatives as a source of economic development. (Steiger, 2010) finds that stakeholders in Tyrol think that gains in summer would not fully offset losses in winter. (Potocka and Zajadacz, 2009) argue that prudent management supplies tourism services suitable for all weather. (Steiger, 2012) finds that, in the first half of this century, demographic trends are more important to skiing in Austria than climate change. (Hopkins et al., 2012) also argue that other factors dominate the impact of climate change.

Other studies consider beach tourism. (Scott et al., 2012) highlight the vulnerability of coastal tourism facilities to sea level rise. (Hamilton, 2007) finds that tourists are averse to artificial coastlines, so that hard protection measures against sea level rise would reduce the attractiveness of an area. (Raymond and Brown, 2011) survey tourists on the Southern Fleurieu Peninsula. They conclude that tourists who are there for relaxation worry about climate change, particularly sea level rise, while tourists who are there to enjoy nature (inland) do not share that concern. (Becken, 2005) finds that tourist operators have adapted to weather events, and argues that this helps them to adapt to climate change. (Belle and Bramwell, 2005) find that tourist operators on Barbados are averse to public adaptation policies. (Uyarra et al., 2005) find that tourists on Barbados would consider holidaying elsewhere if there is severe beach erosion. (Buzinde et al., 2010a; Buzinde et al., 2010b) find that there is a discrepancy between the marketing of destinations as pristine and the observations of tourists, at least for Mexican beach resorts subject to erosion. They conclude that tourists have a mixed response to environmental change, contrary to the officials’ view that tourists respond negatively. (Jopp et al., 2013) find that an increase in tourism in the shoulder season may offset losses in the peak season in Victoria.

Some studies focus on nature tourism. (Wall, 1998) notes the impact of climate change on water-based tourism, on the coast through sea level rise and inland through drought. (Cavan et al., 2006) find that climate change may have a negative effect on the visitor economy of the Scottish uplands as natural beauty deteriorates through increased wild fires. (Saarinen and Tervo, 2006) interviewed nature-based tourism operators in Finland, and found that about half of them do not believe that climate change is real, and that few have considered adaptation options. (Nyaupane and Chhetri, 2009) argue that climate change would increase weather hazards in the Himalayas and that this would endanger tourists. (Uyarra et al., 2005) find that tourists on Bonaire would not return if coral was bleached. (Hall, 2006) finds that small tourist operators in New Zealand do not give high priority to climate change, unless they were personally affected by extreme weather in recent times. The interviewed operators generally think that adaptation is a sufficient response to climate change for the tourism sector. (Klint et al., 2012) find that tourist operators in Vanuatu give low priority to adaptation to climate change and (Jiang et al., 2012) find Fiji poorly prepared. (Saarinen et al., 2012) find that tourist operators in Botswana think that climate change would not affect them. (Wang et al., 2010) note that glacier tourism is particularly vulnerable to climate change, highlighting the Baishiu Glacier in China.

While the case studies reviewed above provide rich detail, it is hard to draw overarching conclusions. A few studies consider all aspects of the impact of climate change for particular countries or regions. (Ren Guoyu, 1996) shows that domestic tourism in China would shift northwards, that sea level rise would damage some tourist facilities, and that the overall impact of climate change on China’s tourist sector would be negative. (Harrison et al., 1999) conclude that climate change would make Scotland less attractive to tourists in winter but more attractive in summer. (Ceron and Dubois, 2005) assess the impact of climate change on tourism in France. They argue that the French Riviera may benefit because it is slightly cooler than the competing coastal resorts in Italy and Spain. The Atlantic Coast, although warming, would not become more attractive because of increased rainfall. The increase in summer tourism in the mountains is unlikely to offset the decrease in winter tourism. (Jones et al., 2006) study the impact of climate change on three festivals in Ottawa. They argue for heat wave preparedness for Canada Day, find that skating on natural ice may become impossible for Winterlude, and fret that the dates of the Tulip Festival may need to be shifted to reflect changing phenology. (Dawson and Scott, 2010) assess the impacts in the Great Lakes regions, finding reduced tourism potential in winter but increased opportunities in summer. (Turton et al., 2010) conclude that tourist operators in Australia find the uncertainty about climate change too large for early investment in adaptation.

10.6.3.    Market impacts

There are only two papers that consider the economic impacts of rather stylized climate-change-induced changes in tourism supply and demand. Both studies use a computable general equilibrium model, assessing the effects on the tourism sector as well as all other markets. (Berrittella et al., 2006) consider the consumption pattern of tourists and their destination choice. They find that the economic impact is qualitatively the same as the impact on tourist flows (discussed above): Colder countries benefit from an expanded tourism sector, and warmer countries lose. They also find a drop in global welfare, because of the redistribution of tourism supply from warmer (and poorer) to colder (and richer) countries. (Bigano et al., 2008) extend the analysis with the implications of sea level rise. The impact on tourism is limited because coastal facilities used by tourists typically are sufficiently valuable to be protected against sea level rise. The study finds that the economic impacts on the tourism sector are reinforced by the economic impacts on the coastal zone; and that the welfare losses due to the impact of climate change on tourism are larger than the welfare losses due to sea level rise.

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