Monday, February 4, 2013

Draft 2b: Tourism and recreation


This is the second version of the second-order draft. Compared to the first version, 50 papers published since the first-order draft were reviewed and, where appropriate, cited. Only one paper had something new to say but not in a particularly convincing manner. Some ten papers mentioned "climate change" and "tourism" in the abstract but were in fact about something else. The remaining forty or so papers reinforce conclusions drawn earlier.

10.6.       Recreation and tourism

Recreation and tourism is one of the largest sectors of the world economy. In 2011, it accounted for 9% of global expenditure, and employed 260 million people (WTTC, 2011). Supply of tourism services is the dominant activity in many regional economies.

Recreation and tourism encompass many activities, some of which are more sensitive to weather and climate than others: compare sunbathing to angling, gambling, business seminars, family visits, and pilgrimage. Climate change would affect the place, time and nature of these activities.

There is a large literature on the impact of climate change on tourism (Gössling et al., 2012; Pang et al., 2013; Scott et al., 2012). Some studies focus on the changes in the behavior of tourists, that is, the demand for recreation and tourism services (see 10.6.1). Other studies look at the implications for tourist operators and destinations, that is, the supply of recreation and tourism services (see 10.6.2). A few studies consider the interactions between changes in supply and demand (see 10.6.3).

10.6.1.    Recreation and tourism demand

Conventionally, recreation does not involve an overnight stay whereas tourism does. That implies that recreation, unlike tourism, is done close to home (while leisure is done at home). Whereas tourists, to a degree, chose the climate of their holidays, recreationists do not (although climate is a consideration in the choice where to live). Tourists would adapt to climate change by changing the location, timing and activities of their holidays; recreationists would adapt only timing and activities (Smith, 1990).

10.6.1.1.        Recreation

There has been no research on systematic differences of recreational behaviour due to differences in climate at large spatial scales. The impact of climate change on recreation is therefore largely unknown. The economic impact is probably limited, as people are more likely to change the composition rather than the level of their time and money spent on recreation. For instance, (Shaw and Loomis, 2008) argue that climate change would increase boating, golfing and beach recreation at the expense of skiing.

There are case studies of the impact of climate change on recreation. (Buckley and Foushee, 2012) find that a trend toward earlier visits to US national parks between 1979 and 2008. They argue this is due to climate change, but do not rigorously test this hypothesis nor control for other explanations. (Dempson et al., 2001) note that the salmon fishery in Newfoundland is closed during hot weather and low water levels. (Ahn et al., 2000) study the impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, and (Whitehead et al., 2009) the effect of sea level rise on sea shore fishing in North Carolina, finding a substantial decrease in the recreational value of these activities. (Daugherty et al., 2011) conclude that climate change will make it more difficult to guarantee adequate water levels for boating and angling in artificial reservoirs. (Pouta et al., 2009) project a reduction in cross-country skiing in Finland, particularly among women, the lower classes, and urban dwellers. (Shih et al., 2009) find that weather affects the demand for ski lift trips. One could expect people to adopt other ways of enjoying themselves but such alternatives were excluded from these studies. There are positive effects too. (Richardson and Loomis, 2005) find that climate change would make trips to the Rocky Mountain National Park more enjoyable. (Scott and Jones, 2006; Scott and Jones, 2007) foresee an increase in golf in Canada due to climate change, (Kulshreshtha, 2011) sees positive impacts on Canadian recreation in general, and (Coombes et al., 2009) predict an increase in beach tourism in East Anglia. (Graff Zivin and Neidell, 2010) find that people recreate indoors when the weather is inclement. (Scott et al., 2007) estimate the relationship between visitors to Waterton Lakes National Park and weather variables for eight years of monthly observations; and use this to project an increase in visitor numbers due to climate change. A survey among current visitors indicates that a deterioration of the quality of nature would reduce visitor numbers.

10.6.1.2.        Tourism

Climate (Becken and Hay, 2007; WTO and UNEP, 2008) and weather (Day et al., 2013; Falk, 2013; Førland et al., 2012; Rossello, 2011; Rosselló-Nadal et al., 2010; Álvarez-Díaz and Rosselló-Nadal, 2010) are important factors in tourist destination choice, and the tourist sector is susceptible to extreme weather (Forster et al., 2012; Forster et al., 2012; Hamzah et al., 2012; Tsai et al., 2012). (Eijgelaar et al., 2010), for instance, argues that so-called “last chance tourism” is a strong pull for tourists to visit Antarctica to admire the glaciers while they still can. (Farbotko, 2010; Prideaux and Mcnamara, 2012) use a similar mechanism to explain the rise in popularity of Tuvalu as a destination choice, but (Huebner, 2012) find no impact of future climate change on current travel choices. (Taylor and Ortiz, 2009) show that domestic tourists in the UK often respond to past weather. The hot summer of 2003 had a positive impact on revenues of the tourist sector. (Denstadli et al., ) find that tourists in the Arctic do not object to the weather in the Arctic. (Gössling et al., 2006) reaches the same conclusion for tourists on Zanzibar, and (Moreno, 2010) for tourists in the Mediterranean.

(Maddison, 2001) estimates a statistical model of the holiday destinations of British tourists, (Lise and Tol, 2002) for Dutch tourists and (Bigano et al., 2006) for international tourists from 45 countries; these models control for as other variables as possible. Tourists have a clear preference for the climate that is currently found in Southern France, Northern Italy and Northern Spain. People from hot climates care more about the climate in which they spend their holidays than people from cool climates. (Bujosa and Rosselló, 2012) study destination choice within Spain, and find the climate change would induce a northward shift.

However, whereas (Bigano et al., 2006) find regularity in revealed preferences, (Scott et al., 2008b) find pronounced differences in stated preferences between types of people. The impact of climate change on tourism demand may be more complicated than suggest by the econometric analyses reviewed above (Gössling and Hall, 2006).

(Bigano et al., 2007; Hamilton et al., 2005a; Hamilton et al., 2005b) use the above econometric analyses to construct a simulation model of domestic and international tourism. (Hamilton and Tol, 2007) downscale the national results of these studies to the regions of selected countries. The advantage of such a model is that it considers the simultaneous change in the attractiveness of all potential holiday destinations (Dawson and Scott, 2013). The disadvantage is its stylized representation of the effect of climate on destination choice. Two main findings emerge. First, climate change would drive tourists to higher latitudes and altitudes. International tourist arrivals would fall, relative to the scenario without warming, in hotter countries, and rise in colder countries. Tourists from Northwestern Europe, the main origin worldwide of international travelers at present, would be more inclined to spend the holiday in their home country, so that the total number of international tourists falls. Second, the impact of climate change is dominated by the impact of population growth and, particularly, economic growth. In the worst affected countries, climate change slows down, but nowhere reverses, growth in the tourism sector.

10.6.2.    Recreation and tourism supply

There are a number of biometeorological studies of the impact of climate change on tourism. (Yu et al., 2009a) find that Alaska has become more attractive over the last 50 years, and Florida less attractive to tourists. (Yu et al., 2009b) conclude that the climate for sightseeing has improved in Alaska, while the climate for skiing has deteriorated. (Scott et al., 2004) show that cClimate change would make Mexico less attractive to tourists, and Canada more attractive. Florida and Arizona would lose market share in US tourism. (Perry, 2006) speculates that the hot summer of 2003 had a negative impact on tourism in the Mediterranean. (Matzarakis et al., 2010) construct a composite index of temperature, humidity, wind speed and cloud cover, and use this to map tourism potential. (Lin and Matzarakis, 2008; Lin and Matzarakis, 2011) apply the index to Taiwan and Eastern China. (Endler and Matzarakis, 2010a; Endler and Matzarakis, 2010b; Endler and Matzarakis, 2011) use an index to study the Black Forest in Germany in detail, highlighting the differences between summer and winter tourism, and between high and low altitudes; the latter aspect is thoroughly investigated by (Endler et al., 2010). (Matzarakis and Endler, 2010; Zaninović and Matzarakis, 2009) use this method to study Freiburg and Hvar. (Matzarakis et al., 2007) project this potential into the future, finding that the Mediterranean will probably become less attractive to tourists. (Amelung and Viner, 2006; Amelung and Moreno, 2012; Amengual et al., 2012; Giannakopoulos et al., 2011; Hein et al., 2009; Perch-Nielsen et al., 2009) reach the same conclusion, but also point out that Mediterranean tourism may shift from summer to the other seasons. (Giannakopoulos et al., 2011) notes that coastal areas in Greece may be affected more than inland areas because, although temperature would be lower, humidity would be higher. (Moreno and Amelung, 2009), on the other hand, conclude that climate change will not have a major impact (before 2050) on beach tourism in the Mediterranean because sunbathers like it hot (Moreno, 2010; Rutty and Scott, 2010). (Amelung et al., 2007) use a weather index for a global study of the impact of climate change on tourism, finding shifts from equator to pole, summer to spring and autumn, and low to high altitudes. (Perch-Nielsen, 2010) combines a meteorological indicator of exposure with indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. She uses this to rank the vulnerability of beach tourism in 51 countries. India stands out as the most vulnerable, and Cyprus as the least vulnerable.

The main criticism of most biometeorological studies is that the predicted gradients and changes in tourism attractiveness have rarely been tested to observations of tourist behaviour. (De Freitas et al., 2008) validate their proposed meteorological index to survey data. (Moreno et al., 2008) and (Ibarra, 2011) use video of beach occupancy to test meteorological indices for beach tourism. (Gómez-Martín, 2006) tests meteorological indices against visitor numbers and occupancy rates. All four studies find that weather and climate affects tourists, but in a different matter than typically assumed by biometeorologists.

Studies on the supply side often focus on ski tourism. (Abegg and Elsasser, 1996) is one of the earliest papers. Warming of would raise the altitude of snow-reliable resorts, and fewer resorts would be snow-reliable (Hendrikx et al., 2012; Steger et al., 2012). (Elsasser and Bürki, 2002) argue that artificial snow-making cannot fully offset the loss in natural snowfall in the Swiss Alps. (Schmidt et al., 2012) show that snow-making is less successful in lower areas, although that is the current strategy of operators in Austria (Morrison and Pickering, 2012; Wolfsegger et al., 2008). (Hamilton et al., 2007) highlight the importance of “backyard snow” to induce potential skiers to visit ski slopes. (Pickering et al., 2010) find that skiers in Australia prefer natural snow over artificial snow. From a series of interviews, (Hill et al., 2010) find that tourist operators in the Swiss Alps seek to maintain the status quo through adaptation, rather than search for viable alternatives to ski tourism; and argue that better coordination is needed for adaptation to be successful. (Scott and McBoyle, 2007) highlight that there are many options to adapt to a loss of snow for skiing. (Hoffmann et al., 2009) use a survey of ski lift operators in the Swiss Alps. They find that the need for adaptation exceeds the ability to adapt and that adaptation is more prevalent on higher slopes (which are less vulnerable). (Scott et al., 2006) study the impact of climate change on ski areas in eastern North America. Even with snowmaking, climate change could be an existential threat to 3 of the 6 ski areas by 2050; and climate change would lead to a contraction in each area in each scenario. (Dawson et al., 2009) use past analogues to study the impact of future climate change on ski tourism in the Northeastern USA. They find that small and very large resorts will be hit hardest, and low-lying ones. (Scott et al., 2008a) find that snowmobiling would have disappeared from the Northeastern USA by the end of the 21st century. (Mcboyle et al., 2007) find the same for the Canadian lowlands. (Matzarakis et al., 2012)Artificial snowmaking would halt the decline of ski resorts, but water scarcity and the costs of snowmaking would be increasingly large problems. (Scott et al., 2003) reach the same conclusion for southern Ontario, (Scott et al., 2007) for Quebec, (Hendrikx and Hreinsson, 2012) for New Zealand, (Steiger and Mayer, 2008) for Tyrol, and (Pons-Pons et al., 2012) for Andorra. (Bicknell and Mcmanus, 2006) study adaptation for ski resorts in Southeastern Australia. They note that resorts may continue to be economically viable in the absence of snow by focusing on alternative activities. (Pickering and Buckley, 2010) note that artificial snow-making may be infeasible and uneconomic at the scale required to offset the loss of natural snow in Australia, and argue for a reorientation towards summer tourism and residential property development. (Moen and Fredman, 2007) find that alpine ski resorts in Sweden would become economically unviable, and that alternative livelihoods need to be developed. (Tervo, 2008) finds that the shortening of the Finnish ski season would be too limited to affect the economic viability of tourist operators, but (Landauer et al., 2012) find that Finnish ski operators would find it difficult to convince their clients of the need to adapt. (Serquet and Rebetez, 2011) find that the Swiss Alps attract more tourists during hot summers, and argue that climate change would structurally improve the mountains as a summer tourism destination. (Matzarakis et al., 2012) also argue that a proper assessment considers all seasons, using Austria as an example. (Bourdeau, 2009) argue along the same lines for the French Alps, stressing the importance of non-tourism alternatives as a source of economic development. (Steiger, 2010) finds that stakeholders in Tyrol think that gains in summer would not fully offset losses in winter. (Potocka and Zajadacz, 2009) argue that prudent management supplies tourism services suitable for all weather. (Steiger, 2012) finds that, in the first half of this century, demographic trends are more important to skiing in Austria than climate change. (Hopkins et al., 2012) also argue that other factors dominate the impact of climate change.

Other studies consider beach tourism. (Scott et al., 2012) highlight the vulnerability of coastal tourism facilities to sea level rise. (Hamilton, 2007) finds that tourists are averse to artificial coastlines, so that hard protection measures against sea level rise would reduce the attractiveness of an area. (Raymond and Brown, 2011) survey tourists on the Southern Fleurieu Peninsula. They conclude that tourists who are there for relaxation worry about climate change, particularly sea level rise, while tourists who are there to enjoy nature (inland) do not share that concern. (Becken, 2005) finds that tourist operators have adapted to weather events, and argues that this helps them to adapt to climate change. (Belle and Bramwell, 2005) find that tourist operators on Barbados are averse to public adaptation policies. (Uyarra et al., 2005) find that tourists on Barbados would consider holidaying elsewhere if there is severe beach erosion. (Buzinde et al., 2010a; Buzinde et al., 2010b) find that there is a discrepancy between the marketing of destinations as pristine and the observations of tourists, at least for Mexican beach resorts subject to erosion. They conclude that tourists have a mixed response to environmental change, contrary to the officials’ view that tourists respond negatively. (Jopp et al., 2013) find that an increase in tourism in the shoulder season may offset losses in the peak season in Victoria.

Some studies focus on nature tourism. (Wall, 1998) notes the impact of climate change on water-based tourism, on the coast through sea level rise and inland through drought. (Cavan et al., 2006) find that climate change may have a negative effect on the visitor economy of the Scottish uplands as natural beauty deteriorates through increased wild fires. (Saarinen and Tervo, 2006) interviewed nature-based tourism operators in Finland, and found that about half of them do not believe that climate change is real, and that few have considered adaptation options. (Nyaupane and Chhetri, 2009) argue that climate change would increase weather hazards in the Himalayas and that this would endanger tourists. (Uyarra et al., 2005) find that tourists on Bonaire would not return if coral was bleached. (Hall, 2006) finds that small tourist operators in New Zealand do not give high priority to climate change, unless they were personally affected by extreme weather in recent times. The interviewed operators generally think that adaptation is a sufficient response to climate change for the tourism sector. (Klint et al., 2012) find that tourist operators in Vanuatu give low priority to adaptation to climate change and (Jiang et al., 2012) find Fiji poorly prepared. (Saarinen et al., 2012) find that tourist operators in Botswana think that climate change would not affect them. (Wang et al., 2010) note that glacier tourism is particularly vulnerable to climate change, highlighting the Baishiu Glacier in China.

While the case studies reviewed above provide rich detail, it is hard to draw overarching conclusions. A few studies consider all aspects of the impact of climate change for particular countries or regions. (Ren Guoyu, 1996) shows that domestic tourism in China would shift northwards, that sea level rise would damage some tourist facilities, and that the overall impact of climate change on China’s tourist sector would be negative. (Harrison et al., 1999) conclude that climate change would make Scotland less attractive to tourists in winter but more attractive in summer. (Ceron and Dubois, 2005) assess the impact of climate change on tourism in France. They argue that the French Riviera may benefit because it is slightly cooler than the competing coastal resorts in Italy and Spain. The Atlantic Coast, although warming, would not become more attractive because of increased rainfall. The increase in summer tourism in the mountains is unlikely to offset the decrease in winter tourism. (Jones et al., 2006) study the impact of climate change on three festivals in Ottawa. They argue for heat wave preparedness for Canada Day, find that skating on natural ice may become impossible for Winterlude, and fret that the dates of the Tulip Festival may need to be shifted to reflect changing phenology. (Dawson and Scott, 2010) assess the impacts in the Great Lakes regions, finding reduced tourism potential in winter but increased opportunities in summer. (Turton et al., 2010) conclude that tourist operators in Australia find the uncertainty about climate change too large for early investment in adaptation.

10.6.3.    Market impacts

There are only two papers that consider the economic impacts of rather stylized climate-change-induced changes in tourism supply and demand. Both studies use a computable general equilibrium model, assessing the effects on the tourism sector as well as all other markets. (Berrittella et al., 2006) consider the consumption pattern of tourists and their destination choice. They find that the economic impact is qualitatively the same as the impact on tourist flows (discussed above): Colder countries benefit from an expanded tourism sector, and warmer countries lose. They also find a drop in global welfare, because of the redistribution of tourism supply from warmer (and poorer) to colder (and richer) countries. (Bigano et al., 2008) extend the analysis with the implications of sea level rise. The impact on tourism is limited because coastal facilities used by tourists typically are sufficiently valuable to be protected against sea level rise. The study finds that the economic impacts on the tourism sector are reinforced by the economic impacts on the coastal zone; and that the welfare losses due to the impact of climate change on tourism are larger than the welfare losses due to sea level rise.
References
Abegg, B. and H. Elsasser, 1996: Climate, weather, and tourism in the Swiss alps. Geographische Rundschau, 48(12), 737-742.
Ahn, S., J.E. De Steiguer, R.B. Palmquist, and T.P. Holmes, 2000: Economic analysis of the potential impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains: An application of a nested multinomial logit model. Climatic Change, 45(3-4), 493-509.
Álvarez-Díaz, M. and J. Rosselló-Nadal, 2010: Forecasting British tourist arrivals in the Balearic Islands using meteorological variables. Tourism Economics, 16(1), 153-168.
Amelung, B. and A. Moreno, 2012: Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: Results of the PESETA project. Climatic Change, 112(1), 83-100.
Amelung, B., S. Nicholls, and D. Viner, 2007: Implications of global climate change for tourism flows and seasonality. Journal of Travel Research, 45(3), 285-296.
Amelung, B. and D. Viner, 2006: Mediterranean tourism: Exploring the future with the tourism climatic index. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14(4), 349-366.
Amengual, A., V. Homar, R. Romero, S. Alonso, and C. Ramis, 2012: Projections of the climate potential for tourism at local scales: Application to Platja de Palma, Spain. International Journal of Climatology, 32(14), 2095-2107.
Becken, S., 2005: Harmonising climate change adaptation and mitigation: The case of tourist resorts in Fiji. Global Environmental Change, 15(4), 381-393.
Becken, S. and J. Hay, 2007: Tourism and climate change: Risks and opportunities. Channel View Publications, Clevedon, .
Belle, N. and B. Bramwell, 2005: Climate change and small island tourism: Policy maker and industry perspectives in Barbados. Journal of Travel Research, 44(1), 32-41.
Berrittella, M., A. Bigano, R. Roson, and R.S.J. Tol, 2006: A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism. Tourism Management, 27(5), 913-924.
Bicknell, S. and P. Mcmanus, 2006: The canary in the coalmine: Australian ski resorts and their response to climate change. Geographical Research, 44(4), 386-400.
Bigano, A., F. Bosello, R. Roson, and R.S.J. Tol, 2008: Economy-wide impacts of climate change: A joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 13(8), 765-791.
Bigano, A., J.M. Hamilton, and R.S.J. Tol, 2007: The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study. Integrated Assessment Journal, 7(1), 25-49.
Bigano, A., J.M. Hamilton, and R.S.J. Tol, 2006: The impact of climate on holiday destination choice. Climatic Change, 76(3-4), 389-406.
Bourdeau, P., 2009: From après-ski to après-tourism: The alps in transition? Reflections based on the French situation. Revue De Geographie Alpine, 97(3).
Buckley, L.B. and M.S. Foushee, 2012: Footprints of climate change in US national park visitation. International Journal of Biometeorology, 56(6), 1173-1177.
Bujosa, A. and J. Rosselló, 2012: Climate change and summer mass tourism: the case of Spanish domestic tourism. Climatic Change, , 1-13.
Buzinde, C.N., D. Manuel-Navarrete, D. Kerstetter, and M. Redclift, 2010a: Representations and adaptation to climate change. Annals of Tourism Research, 37(3), 581-603.
Buzinde, C.N., D. Manuel-Navarrete, E.E. Yoo, and D. Morais, 2010b: Tourists' perceptions in a climate of change: Eroding Destinations. Annals of Tourism Research, 37(2), 333-354.
Cavan, G., J.F. Handley, J. Aylen, K. Albertson, J. McMorrow, S. Lindley, and D. McEvoy, 2006: Climate change and the visitor economy in the uplands. International Journal of Biodiversity Science and Management, 2(3), 170-173.
Ceron, J.-. and G. Dubois, 2005: The potential impacts of climate change on French tourism. Current Issues in Tourism, 8(2-3), 125-139.
Coombes, E.G., A.P. Jones, and W.J. Sutherland, 2009: The implications of climate change on Coastal visitor numbers: A regional analysis. Journal of Coastal Research, 25(4), 981-990.
Daugherty, D.J., D.L. Buckmeier, and P.K. Kokkanti, 2011: Sensitivity of recreational access to reservoir water level variation: An approach to identify future access needs in reservoirs. North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 31(1), 63-69.
Dawson, J. and D. Scott, 2010: Climate change and tourism in the great lakes region: A summary of risks and opportunities. Tourism in Marine Environments, 6(2-3), 119-132.
Dawson, J. and D. Scott, 2013: Managing for climate change in the alpine ski sector. Tourism Management, 35, 244-254.
Dawson, J., D. Scott, and G. Mcboyle, 2009: Climate change analogue analysis of ski tourism in the northeastern USA. Climate Research, 39(1), 1-9.
Day, J., N. Chin, S. Sydnor, and K. Cherkauer, 2013: Weather, climate, and tourism performance: A quantitative analysis. Tourism Management Perspectives, 5, 51-56.
De Freitas, C.R., D. Scott, and G. McBoyle, 2008: A second generation climate index for tourism (CIT): Specification and verification. International Journal of Biometeorology, 52(5), 399-407.
Dempson, J.B., M.F. O'Connell, and N.M. Cochrane, 2001: Potential impact of climate warming on recreational fishing opportunities for Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., Newfoundland, Canada. Fisheries Management and Ecology, 8(1), 69-82.
Denstadli, J.M., J.K.S. Jacobsen, and M. Lohmann, Tourist perceptions of summer weather in Scandinavia. Annals of Tourism Research, .
Eijgelaar, E., C. Thaper, and P. Peeters, 2010: Antarctic cruise tourism: The paradoxes of ambassadorship, "last chance tourism" and greenhouse gas emissions. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 18(3), 337-354.
Elsasser, H. and R. Bürki, 2002: Climate change as a threat to tourism in the Alps. Climate Research, 20(3), 253-257.
Endler, C. and A. Matzarakis, 2010a: Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology - a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, , 1-14.
Endler, C. and A. Matzarakis, 2010b: Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest, Germany - winter season. International Journal of Biometeorology, , 1-13.
Endler, C. and A. Matzarakis, 2011: Climate and tourism in the Black Forest during the warm season. International Journal of Biometeorology, 55(2), 173-186.
Endler, C., K. Oehler, and A. Matzarakis, 2010: Vertical gradient of climate change and climate tourism conditions in the Black Forest. International Journal of Biometeorology, 54(1), 45-61.
Falk, M., 2013: Impact of Long-Term Weather on Domestic and Foreign Winter Tourism Demand. International Journal of Tourism Research, 15(1), 1-17.
Farbotko, C., 2010: 'The global warming clock is ticking so see these places while you can': Voyeuristic tourism and model environmental citizens on Tuvalu's disappearing islands. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, 31(2), 224-238.
Førland, E.J., J.K. Steen Jacobsen, J.M. Denstadli, M. Lohmann, I. Hanssen-Bauer, H.O. Hygen, and H. Tømmervik, 2012: Cool weather tourism under global warming: Comparing Arctic summer tourists' weather preferences with regional climate statistics and projections. Tourism Management, .
Forster, J., P.W. Schuhmann, I.R. Lake, A.R. Watkinson, and J.A. Gill, 2012: The influence of hurricane risk on tourist destination choice in the Caribbean. Climatic Change, 114(3-4), 745-768.
Giannakopoulos, C., E. Kostopoulou, K.V. Varotsos, K. Tziotziou, and A. Plitharas, 2011: An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Greece in the near future. Regional Environmental Change, , 1-15.
Gómez-Martín, M.B., 2006: Climate potential and tourist demand in Catalonia (Spain) during the summer season pp. 75-87.
Gössling, S., M. Bredberg, A. Randow, E. Sandström, and P. Svensson, 2006: Tourist perceptions of climate change: A study of international tourists in Zanzibar. Current Issues in Tourism, 9(4-5), 419-435.
Gössling, S. and C.M. Hall, 2006: Uncertainties in predicting tourist flows under scenarios of climate change. Climatic Change, 79(3-4), 163-173.
Gössling, S., D. Scott, C.M. Hall, J.-. Ceron, and G. Dubois, 2012: Consumer behaviour and demand response of tourists to climate change. Annals of Tourism Research, 39(1), 36-58.
Graff Zivin, J. and M.J. Neidell, 2010: Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change. In: Working Paper [Anonymous . National Bureau of Economic Research, Washington, D.C., pp. 1-41.
Hall, C.M., 2006: New Zealand tourism entrepreneur attitudes and behaviours with respect to climate change adaptation and mitigation. International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, 1(3), 229-237.
Hamilton, J.M., 2007: Coastal landscape and the hedonic price of accommodation. Ecological Economics, 62(3-4), 594-602.
Hamilton, J.M., D.J. Maddison, and R.S.J. Tol, 2005a: Climate change and international tourism: A simulation study. Global Environmental Change, 15(3), 253-266.
Hamilton, J.M., D.J. Maddison, and R.S.J. Tol, 2005b: Effects of climate change on international tourism. Climate Research, 29(3), 245-254.
Hamilton, J.M. and R.S.J. Tol, 2007: The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: A simulation study. Regional Environmental Change, 7(3), 161-172.
Hamilton, L.C., C. Brown, and B.D. Keim, 2007: Ski areas, weather and climate: Time series models for New England case studies. International Journal of Climatology, 27(15), 2113-2124.
Hamzah, J., A. Habibah, A. Buang, K. Jusoff, M.E. Toriman, M.J. Mohd. Fuad, A.C. Er, and A.M. Azima, 2012: Flood disaster, impacts and the tourism providers' responses: The Kota Tinggi experience. Advances in Natural and Applied Sciences, 6(1), 26-32.
Harrison, S.J., S.J. Winterbottom, and C. Sheppard, 1999: The potential effects of climate change on the Scottish tourist industry. Tourism Management, 20(2), 203-211.
Hein, L., M.J. Metzger, and A. Moreno, 2009: Potential impacts of climate change on tourism; a case study for Spain. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1(2), 170-178.
Hendrikx, J. and E.Ö. Hreinsson, 2012: The potential impact of climate change on seasonal snow in New Zealand: Part II-industry vulnerability and future snowmaking potential. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 110(4), 619-630.
Hendrikx, J., E.Ö. Hreinsson, M.P. Clark, and A.B. Mullan, 2012: The potential impact of climate change on seasonal snow in New Zealand: Part I-an analysis using 12 GCMs. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 110(4), 607-618.
Hill, M., A. Wallner, and J. Furtado, 2010: Reducing vulnerability to climate change in the Swiss Alps: A study of adaptive planning. Climate Policy, 10(1), 70-86.
Hoffmann, V.H., D.C. Sprengel, A. Ziegler, M. Kolb, and B. Abegg, 2009: Determinants of corporate adaptation to climate change in winter tourism: An econometric analysis. Global Environmental Change, 19(2), 256-264.
Hopkins, D., J.E.S. Higham, and S. Becken, 2012: Climate change in a regional context: relative vulnerability in the Australasian skier market. Regional Environmental Change, , 1-10.
Huebner, A., 2012: Public perceptions of destination vulnerability to climate change and implications for long-haul travel decisions to small island states. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 20(7), 939-951.
Ibarra, E.M., 2011: The use of webcam images to determine tourist-climate aptitude: Favourable weather types for sun and beach tourism on the Alicante coast (Spain). International Journal of Biometeorology, 55(3), 373-385.
Jiang, M., E. Wong, L.M. Klint, T. DeLacy, and D. Dominey-Howes, 2012: Tourism adaptation to climate change-analysing the policy environment of Fiji. International Journal of Tourism Policy, 4(3), 238-260.
Jones, B., D. Scott, and H.A. Khaled, 2006: Implications of climate change for outdoor event planning: A case study of three special events in Canada's National Capital Region. Event Management, 10(1), 63-76.
Jopp, R., T. DeLacy, J. Mair, and M. Fluker, 2013: Using a Regional Tourism Adaptation Framework to Determine Climate Change Adaptation Options for Victoria's Surf Coast. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 18(1-2), 144-164.
Klint, L.M., M. Jiang, A. Law, T. DeLacy, S. Filep, E. Calgaro, D. Dominey-Howes, and D. Harrison, 2012: Dive tourism in Luganville, Vanuatu: Shocks, stressors, and vulnerability to climate change. Tourism in Marine Environments, 8(1-2), 91-109.
Kulshreshtha, S.N., 2011: Climate Change, Prairie Agriculture, and Prairie Economy: The New Normal. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 59(1), 19-44.
Landauer, M., U. Pröbstl, and W. Haider, 2012: Managing cross-country skiing destinations under the conditions of climate change - Scenarios for destinations in Austria and Finland. Tourism Management, 33(4), 741-751.
Lin, T.-. and A. Matzarakis, 2008: Tourism climate and thermal comfort in Sun Moon Lake, Taiwan. International Journal of Biometeorology, 52(4), 281-290.
Lin, T.-. and A. Matzarakis, 2011: Tourism climate information based on human thermal perception in Taiwan and Eastern China. Tourism Management, 32(3), 492-500.
Lise, W. and R.S.J. Tol, 2002: Impact of climate on tourist demand. Climatic Change, 55(4), 429-449.
Maddison, D., 2001: In search of warmer climates? The impact of climate change on flows of British tourists. Climatic Change, 49(1-2), 193-208.
Matzarakis, A., M. Hämmerle, C. Endler, S. Muthers, and E. Koch, 2012: Assessment of tourism and recreation destinations under climate change conditions in Austria. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 21(2), 157-165.
Matzarakis, A. and C. Endler, 2010: Climate change and thermal bioclimate in cities: Impacts and options for adaptation in Freiburg, Germany. International Journal of Biometeorology, 54(4), 479-483.
Matzarakis, A., T. Georgiadis, and F. Rossi, 2007: Thermal bioclimate analysis for Europe and Italy. Nuovo Cimento Della Societa Italiana Di Fisica C, 30(6), 623-632.
Matzarakis, A., E. Rudel, M. Zygmuntowski, and E. Koch, 2010: Bioclimatic maps for tourism purposes. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 35(1-2), 57-62.
Mcboyle, G., D. Scott, and B. Jones, 2007: Climate change and the future of snowmobiling in non-mountainous regions of Canada. Managing Leisure, 12(4), 237-250.
Moen, J. and P. Fredman, 2007: Effects of climate change on alpine skiing in Sweden. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 15(4), 418-437.
Moreno, A., 2010: Mediterranean tourism and climate (change): A survey-based study. Tourism and Hospitality, Planning and Development, 7(3), 253-265.
Moreno, A. and B. Amelung, 2009: Climate change and tourist comfort on Europe's beaches in summer: A reassessment. Coastal Management, 37(6), 550-568.
Moreno, A., B. Amelung, and L. Santamarta, 2008: Linking beach recreation to weather conditions: A case study in Zandvoort, Netherlands. Tourism in Marine Environments, 5(2-3), 111-119.
Morrison, C. and C. Pickering, 2012: Limits to Climate Change Adaptation: Case Study of the Australian Alps. Geographical Research, .
Nyaupane, G.P. and N. Chhetri, 2009: Vulnerability to climate change of nature-based tourism in the Nepalese Himalayas. Tourism Geographies, 11(1), 95-119.
Pang, S.F.H., B. McKercher, and B. Prideaux, 2013: Climate Change and Tourism: An Overview. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 18(1-2), 4-20.
Perch-Nielsen, S.L., 2010: The vulnerability of beach tourism to climate change-an index approach. Climatic Change, 100(3), 579-606.
Perch-Nielsen, S.L., B. Amelung, and R. Knutti, 2009: Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index. Climatic Change, , 1-19.
Perry, A.H., 2006: Will predicted climate change compromise the sustainability of Mediterranean tourism? Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14(4), 367-375.
Pickering, C.M. and R.C. Buckley, 2010: Climate Response by the Ski Industry: The Shortcomings of Snowmaking for Australian Resorts. Ambio, , 1-9.
Pickering, C.M., J.G. Castley, and M. Burtt, 2010: Skiing less often in a warmer world: Attitudes of tourists to climate change in an Australian ski resort. Geographical Research, 48(2), 137-147.
Pons-Pons, M., P.A. Johnson, M. Rosas-Casals, B. Sureda, and E. Jover, 2012: Modeling climate change effects on winter ski tourism in Andorra. Climate Research, 54(3), 197-207.
Potocka, I. and A. Zajadacz, 2009: Weather and climate as elements of tourism space controlling the demand for and forms of tourist activity. Quaestiones Geographicae, (28 A1), 53-64.
Pouta, E., M. Neuvonen, and T. Sievänen, 2009: Participation in cross-country skiing in Finland under climate change: Application of multiple hierarchy stratification perspective. Journal of Leisure Research, 41(1), 91-108.
Prideaux, B. and K.E. Mcnamara, 2012: Turning a Global Crisis into a Tourism Opportunity: The Perspective from Tuvalu. International Journal of Tourism Research, .
Raymond, C.M. and G. Brown, 2011: Assessing spatial associations between perceptions of landscape value and climate change risk for use in climate change planning. Climatic Change, 104(3-4), 653-678.
Ren Guoyu, 1996: Global climate changes and the tourism of China. Journal of Chinese Geography, 6(2), 97-102.
Richardson, R.B. and J.B. Loomis, 2005: Climate change and recreation benefits in an alpine national park. Journal of Leisure Research, 37(3), 307-320.
Rossello, J., 2011: North Atlantic Oscillation influences on European airline traffic. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 16(2), 183-187.
Rosselló-Nadal, J., A. Riera-Font, and V. Cárdenas, 2010: The impact of weather variability on British outbound flows. Climatic Change, , 1-12.
Rutty, M. and D. Scott, 2010: Will the Mediterranean become "Too Hot" for tourism? A reassessment. Tourism and Hospitality, Planning and Development, 7(3), 267-281.
Saarinen, J., W.L. Hambira, J. Atlhopheng, and H. Manwa, 2012: Tourism industry reaction to climate change in Kgalagadi South District, Botswana. Development Southern Africa, 29(2), 273-285.
Saarinen, J. and K. Tervo, 2006: Perceptions and adaptation strategies of the tourism industry to climate change: The case of Finnish nature-based tourism entrepreneurs. International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, 1(3), 214-228.
Schmidt, P., R. Steiger, and A. Matzarakis, 2012: Artificial snowmaking possibilities and climate change based on regional climate modeling in the Southern Black Forest. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 21(2), 167-172.
Scott, D., J. Dawson, and B. Jones, 2008a: Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation- tourism sector. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 13(5-6), 577-596.
Scott, D., S. Gössling, and C.R. De Freitas, 2008b: Preferred climates for tourism: case studies from Canada, New Zealand and Sweden. Climate Research, 38(1), 61-73.
Scott, D., S. Gössling, and C.M. Hall, 2012: International tourism and climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 3(3), 213-232.
Scott, D. and B. Jones, 2006: The impact of climate change on golf participation in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA): A case study. Journal of Leisure Research, 38(3), 363-380.
Scott, D. and B. Jones, 2007: A regional comparison of the implications of climate change for the golf industry in Canada. Canadian Geographer, 51(2), 219-232.
Scott, D., B. Jones, and J. Konopek, 2007: Implications of climate and environmental change for nature-based tourism in the Canadian Rocky Mountains: A case study of Waterton Lakes National Park. Tourism Management, 28(2), 570-579.
Scott, D. and G. McBoyle, 2007: Climate change adaptation in the ski industry. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12(8), 1411-1431.
Scott, D., G. McBoyle, and B. Mills, 2003: Climate change and the skiing industry in southern Ontario (Canada): Exploring the importance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation. Climate Research, 23(2), 171-181.
Scott, D., G. McBoyle, and A. Minogue, 2007: Climate change and Quebec's ski industry. Global Environmental Change, 17(2), 181-190.
Scott, D., G. McBoyle, A. Minogue, and B. Mills, 2006: Climate change and the sustainability of ski-based tourism in eastern North America: A reassessment. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14(4), 376-398.
Scott, D., G. McBoyle, and M. Schwartzentruber, 2004: Climate change and the distribution of climatic resources for tourism in North America. Climate Research, 27(2), 105-117.
Scott, D., M.C. Simpson, and R. Sim, 2012: The vulnerability of Caribbean coastal tourism to scenarios of climate change related sea level rise. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 20(6), 883-898.
Serquet, G. and M. Rebetez, 2011: Relationship between tourism demand in the Swiss Alps and hot summer air temperatures associated with climate change. Climatic Change, , 1-10.
Shaw, W.D. and J.B. Loomis, 2008: Frameworks for analyzing the economic effects of climate change on outdoor recreation. Climate Research, 36(3), 259-269.
Shih, C., S. Nicholls, and D.F. Holecek, 2009: Impact of weather on downhill ski lift ticket sales. Journal of Travel Research, 47(3), 359-372.
Smith, K., 1990: Tourism and climate change. Land use Policy, 7(2), 176-180.
Steger, C., S. Kotlarski, T. Jonas, and C. Schär, 2012: Alpine snow cover in a changing climate: a regional climate model perspective. Climate Dynamics, , 1-20.
Steiger, R., 2010: The impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking requirements in Tyrol, Austria. Climate Research, 43(3), 251-262.
Steiger, R., 2012: Scenarios for skiing tourism in Austria: Integrating demographics with an analysis of climate change. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 20(6), 867-882.
Steiger, R. and M. Mayer, 2008: Snowmaking and climate change: Future options for snow production in tyrolean ski resorts. Mountain Research and Development, 28(3-4), 292-298.
Taylor, T. and R.A. Ortiz, 2009: Impacts of climate change on domestic tourism in the UK: A panel data estimation. Tourism Economics, 15(4), 803-812.
Tervo, K., 2008: The operational and regional vulnerability of winter tourism to climate variability and change: The case of the finnish nature-based tourism entrepreneurs. Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 8(4), 317-332.
Tsai, H.-., C.-. Tseng, S.-. Tzeng, T.-. Wu, and J.-. Day, 2012: The impacts of natural hazards on Taiwan's tourism industry. Natural Hazards, 62(1), 83-91.
Turton, S., T. Dickson, W. Hadwen, B. Jorgensen, T. Pham, D. Simmons, P. Tremblay, and R. Wilson, 2010: Developing an approach for tourism climate change assessment: Evidence from four contrasting Australian case studies. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 18(3), 429-447.
Uyarra, M.C., I.M. Côté, J.A. Gill, R.R.T. Tinch, D. Viner, and A.R. Watkinson, 2005: Island-specific preferences of tourists for environmental features: Implications of climate change for tourism-dependent states. Environmental Conservation, 32(1), 11-19.
Wall, G., 1998: Implications of global climate change for tourism and recreation in wetland areas. Climatic Change, 40(2), 371-389.
Wang, S., Y. He, and X. Song, 2010: Impacts of climate warming on Alpine glacier tourism and adaptive measures: A case study of Baishui Glacier No. 1 in Yulong Snow Mountain, Southwestern China. Journal of Earth Science, 21(2), 166-178.
Whitehead, J.C., B. Poulter, C.F. Dumas, and O. Bin, 2009: Measuring the economic effects of sea level rise on shore fishing. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 14(8), 777-792.
Wolfsegger, C., S. Gössling, and D. Scott, 2008: Climate Change Risk Appraisal in the Austrian Ski Industry. Tourism Review International, 12(1), 13-23.
WTO and UNEP, 2008: Climate Change and Tourism - Responding to Global Challenges. In: [Anonymous . World Tourism Organization, Madrid.
WTTC, 2011: Travel & Tourism 2011. In: [Anonymous . World Travel and Tourism Council, London.
Yu, G., Z. Schwartz, and J.E. Walsh, 2009a: A weather-resolving index for assessing the impact of climate change on tourism related climate resources. Climatic Change, 95(3-4), 551-573.
Yu, G., S. Zvi, and J.E. Walsh, 2009b: Effects of climate change on the seasonality of weather for tourism in Alaska. Arctic, 62(4), 443-457.
Zaninović, K. and A. Matzarakis, 2009: The bioclimatological leaflet as a means conveying climatological information to tourists and the tourism industry. International Journal of Biometeorology, 53(4), 369-374.

4 comments:

  1. This article is mind blowing I read it and enjoyed. I always find this type of article to learn and gather knowledge.

    Ogniwa fotowoltaiczne

    ReplyDelete
  2. The references seem to be mostly based on what if scenarios that simply accept the worst sorts of AGW fear mongering as fact. I would submit that the opportunity cost of the now major hemorrhage of public money, and the depressive effect of climate fear mongering are the only actual climate related threats to tourism.

    ReplyDelete
  3. “A survey” [(Scott et al., 2007)] “among current visitors indicates that a deterioration of the quality of nature would reduce visitor numbers.”

    I find this statement slightly misleading in that the survey of (Scott et al., 2007) is probably the same survey in (Scott et al., 2006) [both surveys n=425] and “as is” could only support the conclusion that rapid and significant environmental change in the park in question might reduce visitor numbers.

    1) The survey shows that little to moderate change had little to no effect on visitation intensions but only “more extensive environmental changes” showed a significant drop in visitation intensions, therefore “a” deterioration as in “any” as common English would have us interpret it would be unfounded.

    2) The survey understandably did not provide a time frame for the environmental changes in order to avoid biasing the results “(e.g., I will not be alive in 2080, so these change are not relevant to me)”, however, that also masks the relative nature of human comparative judgments upon future visitation intentions. In other words, the people of 2080 aren’t going to be comparing the state of the environment to 2010’s but rather more likely 2060 or later; thus to them a minor change that wouldn’t necessarily effect their visitation intentions.

    3) The use of the phrase “a deterioration of the quality of nature” imposes a value judgment upon the environmental changes described in the survey. For example; in scenario 1 (least change) 15% of the park is grassland but in scenario 3 (most change) 44% of the park is in grassland; if one is particularly fond of grassland this might be viewed as the opposite of deterioration.


    If the goal is a dispassionate and accurate assessment of the literature then perhaps misleading statements (no matter how slight) should be avoided. Note that I picked a statement almost at random to take a closer look; this may be the norm or anomalous.

    Scott, D., B. Jones, and J. Konopek, 2007: Implications of climate and environmental change for nature-based tourism in the Canadian Rocky Mountains: A case study of Waterton Lakes National Park. Tourism Management, 28(2), 570-579.

    Scott, D. and Jones, B. 2006. Climate Change & Nature-Based Tourism. Implications for Park Visitation in Canada. Waterloo, ON: University of Waterloo, Department of Geography.
    http://torc.linkbc.ca/torc/downs1/Nature%20Based%20tourism.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  4. The Austrian ski resort of Kitzbühel recently made a press release showing the temperature trend for the last 20 years at the ski resort. The article was accompanied by a photograph of Kitzbuhel staff showing with very clear satisfaction that the trend is negative and it's becoming colder for this region of the Alps. I bet they are tired of very pessimistic projections based on nothing more than computer models and which are not very encouraging for their business.
    http://www.pressezone.com/promedia/presse/detail.php?we_objectID=6324

    ReplyDelete