This is the second version of the second-order draft. Compared to the first version, 50 papers published since the first-order draft were reviewed and, where appropriate, cited. Only one paper had something new to say but not in a particularly convincing manner. Some ten papers mentioned "climate change" and "tourism" in the abstract but were in fact about something else. The remaining forty or so papers reinforce conclusions drawn earlier.
10.6. Recreation and tourism
Recreation and tourism is one of the largest sectors of the world
economy. In 2011, it accounted for 9% of global expenditure, and employed 260
million people (WTTC, 2011). Supply of tourism services
is the dominant activity in many regional economies.
Recreation and tourism encompass many activities, some of
which are more sensitive to weather and climate than others: compare sunbathing
to angling, gambling, business seminars, family visits, and pilgrimage. Climate
change would affect the place, time and nature of these activities.
There is a large literature on the impact of climate change
on tourism (Gössling et al., 2012; Pang et al., 2013; Scott et al.,
2012).
Some studies focus on the changes in the behavior of tourists, that is, the
demand for recreation and tourism services (see 10.6.1). Other studies look at
the implications for tourist operators and destinations, that is, the supply of
recreation and tourism services (see 10.6.2). A few studies consider the
interactions between changes in supply and demand (see 10.6.3).
10.6.1. Recreation and tourism demand
Conventionally, recreation does not involve an overnight
stay whereas tourism does. That implies that recreation, unlike tourism, is
done close to home (while leisure is done at home). Whereas tourists, to a
degree, chose the climate of their holidays, recreationists do not (although
climate is a consideration in the choice where to live). Tourists would adapt
to climate change by changing the location, timing and activities of their
holidays; recreationists would adapt only timing and activities (Smith, 1990).
10.6.1.1. Recreation
There has been no research on systematic differences of
recreational behaviour due to differences in climate at large spatial scales.
The impact of climate change on recreation is therefore largely unknown. The
economic impact is probably limited, as people are more likely to change the
composition rather than the level of their time and money spent on recreation. For
instance, (Shaw and Loomis, 2008) argue that climate change
would increase boating, golfing and beach recreation at the expense of skiing.
There are case studies of the impact of climate change on
recreation. (Buckley and Foushee, 2012) find that a trend toward
earlier visits to US national parks between 1979 and 2008. They argue this is
due to climate change, but do not rigorously test this hypothesis nor control
for other explanations. (Dempson et al., 2001) note that the salmon fishery
in Newfoundland is closed during hot weather and low water levels. (Ahn et al., 2000) study the impact of climate
change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, and
(Whitehead et al., 2009) the effect of sea level rise
on sea shore fishing in North Carolina, finding a substantial decrease in the recreational
value of these activities. (Daugherty et al., 2011) conclude that climate change
will make it more difficult to guarantee adequate water levels for boating and
angling in artificial reservoirs. (Pouta et al., 2009) project a reduction in
cross-country skiing in Finland, particularly among women, the lower classes,
and urban dwellers. (Shih et al., 2009) find that weather affects the
demand for ski lift trips. One could expect people to adopt other ways of
enjoying themselves but such alternatives were excluded from these studies. There
are positive effects too. (Richardson and Loomis, 2005) find that climate change
would make trips to the Rocky Mountain National Park more enjoyable. (Scott and Jones, 2006; Scott and Jones,
2007)
foresee an increase in golf in Canada due to climate change, (Kulshreshtha, 2011) sees positive impacts on
Canadian recreation in general, and (Coombes et al., 2009) predict an increase in beach
tourism in East Anglia. (Graff Zivin and Neidell, 2010) find that people recreate
indoors when the weather is inclement. (Scott et al., 2007) estimate the relationship
between visitors to Waterton Lakes National Park and weather variables for eight years of monthly observations; and use
this to project an increase in visitor numbers due to climate change. A survey among current visitors indicates that a
deterioration of the quality of nature would reduce visitor numbers.
10.6.1.2. Tourism
Climate (Becken and Hay, 2007; WTO and UNEP, 2008) and weather (Day et al., 2013; Falk, 2013;
Førland et al., 2012; Rossello, 2011; Rosselló-Nadal et al.,
2010; Álvarez-Díaz and Rosselló-Nadal, 2010) are important factors in
tourist destination choice, and the tourist sector is susceptible to extreme
weather (Forster et al., 2012; Forster et
al., 2012; Hamzah et al., 2012; Tsai et al., 2012). (Eijgelaar et al., 2010), for instance, argues that
so-called “last chance tourism” is a strong pull for tourists to visit
Antarctica to admire the glaciers while they still can. (Farbotko, 2010; Prideaux and Mcnamara,
2012)
use a similar mechanism to explain the rise in popularity of Tuvalu as a
destination choice, but (Huebner, 2012) find no impact of future
climate change on current travel choices. (Taylor and Ortiz, 2009) show that domestic tourists
in the UK often respond to past weather. The hot summer of 2003 had a positive
impact on revenues of the tourist sector. (Denstadli et al., ) find that tourists in the
Arctic do not object to the weather in the Arctic. (Gössling et al., 2006) reaches the same conclusion
for tourists on Zanzibar, and (Moreno,
2010)
for tourists in the Mediterranean.
(Maddison, 2001) estimates a statistical model
of the holiday destinations of British tourists, (Lise and Tol, 2002) for Dutch tourists and (Bigano et al., 2006) for international tourists
from 45 countries; these models control for as other variables as possible.
Tourists have a clear preference for the climate that is currently found in
Southern France, Northern Italy and Northern Spain. People from hot climates care
more about the climate in which they spend their holidays than people from cool
climates. (Bujosa and Rosselló, 2012) study destination choice
within Spain, and find the climate change would induce a northward shift.
However, whereas (Bigano et al., 2006) find regularity in revealed
preferences, (Scott et al., 2008b) find pronounced differences
in stated preferences between types of people. The impact of climate change on
tourism demand may be more complicated than suggest by the econometric analyses
reviewed above (Gössling and Hall, 2006).
(Bigano et al., 2007; Hamilton et al., 2005a; Hamilton
et al., 2005b)
use the above econometric analyses to construct a simulation model of domestic
and international tourism. (Hamilton and Tol, 2007) downscale the national
results of these studies to the regions of selected countries. The advantage of
such a model is that it considers the simultaneous change in the attractiveness
of all potential holiday destinations (Dawson and Scott, 2013). The disadvantage is its stylized
representation of the effect of climate on destination choice. Two main
findings emerge. First, climate change would drive tourists to higher latitudes
and altitudes. International tourist arrivals would fall, relative to the
scenario without warming, in hotter countries, and rise in colder countries.
Tourists from Northwestern Europe, the main origin worldwide of international
travelers at present, would be more inclined to spend the holiday in their home
country, so that the total number of international tourists falls. Second, the
impact of climate change is dominated by the impact of population growth and,
particularly, economic growth. In the worst affected countries, climate change
slows down, but nowhere reverses, growth in the tourism sector.
10.6.2. Recreation and tourism supply
There are a number of biometeorological studies of the
impact of climate change on tourism. (Yu et al., 2009a) find that Alaska has become
more attractive over the last 50 years, and Florida less attractive to
tourists. (Yu et al., 2009b) conclude that the climate for
sightseeing has improved in Alaska, while the climate for skiing has
deteriorated. (Scott et al., 2004) show that cClimate change
would make Mexico less attractive to tourists, and Canada more attractive.
Florida and Arizona would lose market share in US tourism. (Perry, 2006) speculates that the hot summer of 2003 had a
negative impact on tourism in the Mediterranean. (Matzarakis et al., 2010) construct a composite index
of temperature, humidity, wind speed and cloud cover, and use this to map
tourism potential. (Lin
and Matzarakis, 2008; Lin and Matzarakis, 2011) apply the index to Taiwan and
Eastern China. (Endler and Matzarakis, 2010a; Endler and Matzarakis, 2010b; Endler and
Matzarakis, 2011)
use an index to study the Black Forest in Germany in detail, highlighting the
differences between summer and winter tourism, and between high and low
altitudes; the latter aspect is thoroughly investigated by (Endler et al., 2010). (Matzarakis and Endler, 2010; Zaninović and
Matzarakis, 2009)
use this method to study Freiburg and Hvar. (Matzarakis et al., 2007) project this potential into
the future, finding that the Mediterranean will probably become less attractive
to tourists. (Amelung and Viner, 2006; Amelung and Moreno, 2012; Amengual et al.,
2012; Giannakopoulos et al., 2011; Hein et al., 2009;
Perch-Nielsen et al., 2009) reach the same conclusion,
but also point out that Mediterranean tourism may shift from summer to the
other seasons. (Giannakopoulos et al., 2011) notes that coastal areas in
Greece may be affected more than inland areas because, although temperature
would be lower, humidity would be higher. (Moreno and Amelung, 2009), on the other hand, conclude
that climate change will not have a major impact (before 2050) on beach tourism
in the Mediterranean because sunbathers like it hot (Moreno, 2010; Rutty and Scott, 2010). (Amelung et al., 2007) use a weather index for a
global study of the impact of climate change on tourism, finding shifts from
equator to pole, summer to spring and autumn, and low to high altitudes. (Perch-Nielsen, 2010) combines a meteorological
indicator of exposure with indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. She
uses this to rank the vulnerability of beach tourism in 51 countries. India
stands out as the most vulnerable, and Cyprus as the least vulnerable.
The main criticism of most biometeorological studies is that
the predicted gradients and changes in tourism attractiveness have rarely been
tested to observations of tourist behaviour. (De Freitas et al., 2008) validate their proposed
meteorological index to survey data. (Moreno et al., 2008) and (Ibarra, 2011) use video of beach occupancy to test
meteorological indices for beach tourism. (Gómez-Martín, 2006) tests meteorological indices
against visitor numbers and occupancy rates. All four studies find that weather
and climate affects tourists, but in a different matter than typically assumed
by biometeorologists.
Studies on the supply side often focus on ski tourism. (Abegg and Elsasser, 1996) is one of the earliest papers.
Warming of would raise the altitude of snow-reliable resorts, and fewer resorts
would be snow-reliable (Hendrikx
et al., 2012; Steger et al., 2012). (Elsasser and Bürki, 2002) argue that artificial
snow-making cannot fully offset the loss in natural snowfall in the Swiss Alps.
(Schmidt et al., 2012) show that snow-making is less
successful in lower areas, although that is the current strategy of operators
in Austria (Morrison and Pickering, 2012; Wolfsegger et al., 2008). (Hamilton et al., 2007) highlight the importance of “backyard
snow” to induce potential skiers to visit ski slopes. (Pickering et al., 2010) find that skiers in Australia
prefer natural snow over artificial snow. From a series of interviews, (Hill et al., 2010) find that tourist operators
in the Swiss Alps seek to maintain the status quo through adaptation, rather
than search for viable alternatives to ski tourism; and argue that better
coordination is needed for adaptation to be successful. (Scott and McBoyle, 2007) highlight that there are many
options to adapt to a loss of snow for skiing. (Hoffmann et al., 2009) use a survey of ski lift
operators in the Swiss Alps. They find that the need for adaptation exceeds the
ability to adapt and that adaptation is more prevalent on higher slopes (which
are less vulnerable). (Scott et al., 2006) study the impact of climate
change on ski areas in eastern North America. Even with snowmaking, climate
change could be an existential threat to 3 of the 6 ski areas by 2050; and
climate change would lead to a contraction in each area in each scenario. (Dawson et al., 2009) use past analogues to study
the impact of future climate change on ski tourism in the Northeastern USA.
They find that small and very large resorts will be hit hardest, and low-lying
ones. (Scott et al., 2008a) find that snowmobiling would
have disappeared from the Northeastern USA by the end of the 21st century. (Mcboyle et al., 2007) find the same for the
Canadian lowlands. (Matzarakis et al., 2012)Artificial snowmaking would
halt the decline of ski resorts, but water scarcity and the costs of snowmaking
would be increasingly large problems. (Scott et al., 2003) reach the same conclusion for
southern Ontario, (Scott et al., 2007) for Quebec, (Hendrikx and Hreinsson, 2012) for New Zealand, (Steiger and Mayer, 2008) for Tyrol, and (Pons-Pons et al., 2012) for Andorra. (Bicknell and Mcmanus, 2006) study adaptation for ski
resorts in Southeastern Australia. They note that resorts may continue to be
economically viable in the absence of snow by focusing on alternative
activities. (Pickering and Buckley, 2010) note that artificial
snow-making may be infeasible and uneconomic at the scale required to offset
the loss of natural snow in Australia, and argue for a reorientation towards
summer tourism and residential property development. (Moen and Fredman, 2007) find that alpine ski resorts
in Sweden would become economically unviable, and that alternative livelihoods
need to be developed. (Tervo, 2008) finds that the shortening of
the Finnish ski season would be too limited to affect the economic viability of
tourist operators, but (Landauer et al., 2012) find that Finnish ski
operators would find it difficult to convince their clients of the need to
adapt. (Serquet and Rebetez, 2011) find that the Swiss Alps
attract more tourists during hot summers, and argue that climate change would
structurally improve the mountains as a summer tourism destination. (Matzarakis et al., 2012) also argue that a proper
assessment considers all seasons, using Austria as an example. (Bourdeau, 2009) argue along the same lines for the French Alps,
stressing the importance of non-tourism alternatives as a source of economic
development. (Steiger, 2010) finds that stakeholders in
Tyrol think that gains in summer would not fully offset losses in winter. (Potocka and Zajadacz, 2009) argue that prudent management
supplies tourism services suitable for all weather. (Steiger, 2012) finds that, in the first half of this century,
demographic trends are more important to skiing in Austria than climate change.
(Hopkins et al., 2012) also argue that other factors
dominate the impact of climate change.
Other studies consider beach tourism. (Scott et al., 2012) highlight the vulnerability
of coastal tourism facilities to sea level rise. (Hamilton, 2007) finds that tourists are averse to artificial
coastlines, so that hard protection measures against sea level rise would reduce
the attractiveness of an area. (Raymond and Brown, 2011) survey tourists on the
Southern Fleurieu Peninsula. They conclude that tourists who are there for
relaxation worry about climate change, particularly sea level rise, while
tourists who are there to enjoy nature (inland) do not share that concern. (Becken, 2005) finds that tourist operators have adapted to
weather events, and argues that this helps them to adapt to climate change. (Belle and Bramwell, 2005) find that tourist operators
on Barbados are averse to public adaptation policies. (Uyarra et al., 2005) find that tourists on
Barbados would consider holidaying elsewhere if there is severe beach erosion. (Buzinde et al., 2010a; Buzinde et
al., 2010b)
find that there is a discrepancy between the marketing of destinations as
pristine and the observations of tourists, at least for Mexican beach resorts
subject to erosion. They conclude that tourists have a mixed response to
environmental change, contrary to the officials’ view that tourists respond
negatively. (Jopp et al., 2013) find that an increase in
tourism in the shoulder season may offset losses in the peak season in
Victoria.
Some studies focus on nature tourism. (Wall, 1998)
notes the impact of climate change on water-based tourism, on the coast through
sea level rise and inland through drought. (Cavan et al., 2006) find that climate change may
have a negative effect on the visitor economy of the Scottish uplands as natural
beauty deteriorates through increased wild fires. (Saarinen and Tervo, 2006) interviewed nature-based
tourism operators in Finland, and found that about half of them do not believe
that climate change is real, and that few have considered adaptation options. (Nyaupane and Chhetri, 2009) argue that climate change
would increase weather hazards in the Himalayas and that this would endanger
tourists. (Uyarra et al., 2005) find that tourists on Bonaire
would not return if coral was bleached. (Hall, 2006)
finds that small tourist operators in New Zealand do not give high priority to
climate change, unless they were personally affected by extreme weather in
recent times. The interviewed operators generally think that adaptation is a
sufficient response to climate change for the tourism sector. (Klint et al., 2012) find that tourist operators
in Vanuatu give low priority to adaptation to climate change and (Jiang et al., 2012) find Fiji poorly prepared. (Saarinen et al., 2012) find that tourist operators
in Botswana think that climate change would not affect them. (Wang et al., 2010) note that glacier tourism is
particularly vulnerable to climate change, highlighting the Baishiu Glacier in
China.
While the case studies reviewed above provide rich detail,
it is hard to draw overarching conclusions. A few studies consider all aspects
of the impact of climate change for particular countries or regions. (Ren Guoyu, 1996) shows that domestic tourism in China would shift
northwards, that sea level rise would damage some tourist facilities, and that
the overall impact of climate change on China’s tourist sector would be
negative. (Harrison et al., 1999) conclude that climate change
would make Scotland less attractive to tourists in winter but more attractive
in summer. (Ceron and Dubois, 2005) assess the impact of climate
change on tourism in France. They argue that the French Riviera may benefit
because it is slightly cooler than the competing coastal resorts in Italy and
Spain. The Atlantic Coast, although warming, would not become more attractive
because of increased rainfall. The increase in summer tourism in the mountains
is unlikely to offset the decrease in winter tourism. (Jones et al., 2006) study the impact of climate
change on three festivals in Ottawa. They argue for heat wave preparedness for
Canada Day, find that skating on natural ice may become impossible for
Winterlude, and fret that the dates of the Tulip Festival may need to be
shifted to reflect changing phenology. (Dawson and Scott, 2010) assess the impacts in the
Great Lakes regions, finding reduced tourism potential in winter but increased
opportunities in summer. (Turton et al., 2010) conclude that tourist
operators in Australia find the uncertainty about climate change too large for
early investment in adaptation.
10.6.3. Market impacts
There are only two papers that consider the economic impacts
of rather stylized climate-change-induced changes in tourism supply and demand.
Both studies use a computable general equilibrium model, assessing the effects
on the tourism sector as well as all other markets. (Berrittella et al., 2006) consider the consumption
pattern of tourists and their destination choice. They find that the economic
impact is qualitatively the same as the impact on tourist flows (discussed
above): Colder countries benefit from an expanded tourism sector, and warmer
countries lose. They also find a drop in global welfare, because of the
redistribution of tourism supply from warmer (and poorer) to colder (and
richer) countries. (Bigano et al., 2008) extend the analysis with the implications
of sea level rise. The impact on tourism is limited because coastal facilities
used by tourists typically are sufficiently valuable to be protected against
sea level rise. The study finds that the economic impacts on the tourism sector
are reinforced by the economic impacts on the coastal zone; and that the
welfare losses due to the impact of climate change on tourism are larger than
the welfare losses due to sea level rise.
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