Draft 2a: Tourism and recreation

This is the first version of the second-order draft.

10.6.       Recreation and tourism

Recreation and tourism is one of the largest sectors of the world economy. In 2011, it accounted for 9% of global expenditure, and employed 260 million people (WTTC, 2011). Supply of tourism services is the dominant activity in many regional economies.

Recreation and tourism encompass many activities, some of which are more sensitive to weather and climate than others: compare sunbathing to angling, gambling, business seminars, family visits, and pilgrimage. Climate change would affect the place, time and nature of these activities.

There is a large literature on the impact of climate change on tourism (Scott et al., 2012). Some studies focus on the changes in the behavior of tourists, that is, the demand for recreation and tourism services (see 10.6.1). Other studies look at the implications for tourist operators and destinations, that is, the supply of recreation and tourism services (see 10.6.2). A few studies consider the interactions between changes in supply and demand (see 10.6.3).

10.6.1.    Recreation and tourism demand

Conventionally, recreation does not involve an overnight stay whereas tourism does. That implies that recreation, unlike tourism, is done close to home (while leisure is done at home). Whereas tourists, to a degree, chose the climate of their holidays, recreationists do not (although climate is a consideration in the choice where to live). Tourists would adapt to climate change by changing the location, timing and activities of their holidays; recreationists would adapt only timing and activities (Smith, 1990).

10.6.1.1.        Recreation

There has been no research on systematic differences of recreational behaviour due to differences in climate at large spatial scales. The impact of climate change on recreation is therefore largely unknown. The economic impact is probably limited, as people are more likely to change the composition rather than the level of their time and money spent on recreation. For instance, (Shaw and Loomis, 2008) argue that climate change would increase boating, golfing and beach recreation at the expense of skiing.

There are case studies of the impact of climate change on recreation.(Dempson et al., 2001) note that the salmon fishery in Newfoundland is closed during hot weather and low water levels. (Ahn et al., 2000) study the impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, and (Whitehead et al., 2009) the effect of sea level rise on sea shore fishing in North Carolina, finding a substantial decrease in the recreational value of these activities. (Daugherty et al., 2011) conclude that climate change will make it more difficult to guarantee adequate water levels for boating and angling in artificial reservoirs. (Pouta et al., 2009) project a reduction in cross-country skiing in Finland, particularly among women, the lower classes, and urban dwellers. (Shih et al., 2009) find that weather affects the demand for ski lift trips. One could expect people to adopt other ways of enjoying themselves but such alternatives were excluded from these studies. There are positive effects too. (Richardson and Loomis, 2005) find that climate change would make trips to the Rocky Mountain National Park more enjoyable. (Scott and Jones, 2006; Scott and Jones, 2007) foresee an increase in golf in Canada due to climate change, (Kulshreshtha, 2011) sees positive impacts on Canadian recreation in general, and (Coombes et al., 2009) predict an increase in beach tourism in East Anglia. (Graff Zivin and Neidell, 2010) find that people recreate indoors when the weather is inclement. (Scott et al., 2007) estimate the relationship between visitors to Waterton Lakes National Park and weather variables for eight years of monthly observations; and use this to project an increase in visitor numbers due to climate change. A survey among current visitors indicates that a deterioration of the quality of nature would reduce visitor numbers.

10.6.1.2.        Tourism

Climate (Becken and Hay, 2007; WTO and UNEP, 2008) and weather (Rossello, 2011; Rosselló-Nadal et al., 2010; Álvarez-Díaz and Rosselló-Nadal, 2010) are important factors in tourist destination choice. (Eijgelaar et al., 2010), for instance, argues that so-called “last chance tourism” is a strong pull for tourists to visit Antarctica to admire the glaciers while they still can. (Farbotko, 2010) uses a similar mechanism to explain the rise in popularity of Tuvalu as a destination choice. (Taylor and Ortiz, 2009) show that domestic tourists in the UK often respond to past weather. The hot summer of 2003 had a positive impact on revenues of the tourist sector. (Denstadli et al., ) find that tourists in the Arctic do not object to the weather in the Arctic. (Gössling et al., 2006) reaches the same conclusion for tourists on Zanzibar, and (Moreno, 2010) for tourists in the Mediterranean.

(Maddison, 2001) estimates a statistical model of the holiday destinations of British tourists, (Lise and Tol, 2002) for Dutch tourists and (Bigano et al., 2006) for international tourists from 45 countries; these models control for as other variables as possible. Tourists have a clear preference for the climate that is currently found in Southern France, Northern Italy and Northern Spain. People from hot climates care more about the climate in which they spend their holidays than people from cool climates.

However, whereas (Bigano et al., 2006) find regularity in revealed preferences, (Scott et al., 2008b) find pronounced differences in stated preferences between types of people. The impact of climate change on tourism demand may be more complicated than suggest by the econometric analyses reviewed above (Gössling and Hall, 2006).

(Bigano et al., 2007; Hamilton et al., 2005a; Hamilton et al., 2005b) use the above econometric analyses to construct a simulation of domestic and international tourism. (Hamilton and Tol, 2007) downscale the national results of these studies to the regions of selected countries. The advantage of such a model is that it considers the simultaneous change in the attractiveness of all potential holiday destinations. The disadvantage is its stylized representation of the effect of climate on destination choice. Two main findings emerge. First, climate change would drive tourists to higher latitudes and altitudes. International tourist arrivals would fall, relative to the scenario without warming, in hotter countries, and rise in colder countries. Tourists from Northwestern Europe, the main origin worldwide of international travelers at present, would be more inclined to spend the holiday in their home country, so that the total number of international tourists falls. Second, the impact of climate change is dominated by the impact of population growth and, particularly, economic growth. In the worst affected countries, climate change slows down, but nowhere reverses, growth in the tourism sector.

10.6.2.    Recreation and tourism supply

There are a number of biometeorological studies of the impact of climate change on tourism. (Yu et al., 2009a) construct a Modified Climate Index for Tourism and apply it to fifty years of past data for Alaska and Florida. They find that Alaska has become more attractive, and Florida less attractive to tourists. (Yu et al., 2009b) use the same approach to conclude that the climate for sightseeing has improved in Alaska, while the climate for skiing has deteriorated. (Scott et al., 2004) use a similar index. Climate change would make Mexico less attractive to tourists, and Canada more attractive. Florida and Arizona would lose market share in US tourism. (Perry, 2006) speculates that the hot summer of 2003 had a negative impact on tourism in the Mediterranean. (Matzarakis et al., 2010) construct a composite index of temperature, humidity, wind speed and cloud cover, and use this to map tourism potential. (Lin and Matzarakis, 2008; Lin and Matzarakis, 2011) apply the index to Taiwan and Eastern China. (Endler and Matzarakis, 2010a; Endler and Matzarakis, 2010b; Endler and Matzarakis, 2011) use an index to study the Black Forest in Germany in detail, highlighting the differences between summer and winter tourism, and between high and low altitudes; the latter aspect is thoroughly investigated by (Endler et al., 2010). (Matzarakis and Endler, 2010; Zaninović and Matzarakis, 2009) use this method to study Freiburg and Hvar. (Matzarakis et al., 2007) project this potential into the future, finding that the Mediterranean will probably become less attractive to tourists. (Amelung and Viner, 2006; Amelung and Moreno, 2012; Giannakopoulos et al., 2011; Hein et al., 2009; Perch-Nielsen et al., 2009) use a different index to reach the same conclusion, but also point out that Mediterranean tourism may shift from summer to the other seasons. (Giannakopoulos et al., 2011) notes that coastal areas in Greece may be affected more than inland areas because, although temperature would be lower, humidity would be higher. (Moreno and Amelung, 2009), on the other hand, conclude that climate change will not have a major impact (before 2050) on beach tourism in the Mediterranean because sunbathers like it hot (Moreno, 2010; Rutty and Scott, 2010). (Amelung et al., 2007) use a weather index for a global study of the impact of climate change on tourism, finding shifts from equator to pole, summer to spring and autumn, and low to high altitudes. (Perch-Nielsen, 2010) combines a meteorological indicator of exposure with indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. She uses this to rank the vulnerability of beach tourism in 51 countries. India stands out as the most vulnerable, and Cyprus as the least vulnerable.

The main criticism of most biometeorological studies is that the predicted gradients and changes in tourism attractiveness have rarely been tested to observations of tourist behaviour. (De Freitas et al., 2008) validate their proposed meteorological index to survey data. (Moreno et al., 2008) and (Ibarra, 2011) use video of beach occupancy to test meteorological indices for beach tourism. (Gómez-Martín, 2006) tests meteorological indices against visitor numbers and occupancy rates. All four studies find that weather and climate affects tourists, but in a different matter than typically assumed by biometeorologists.

Studies on the supply side often focus on ski tourism. (Abegg and Elsasser, 1996) is one of the earliest papers. Warming of would raise the altitude of snow-reliable resorts, and fewer resorts would be snow-reliable. (Elsasser and Bürki, 2002) argue that artificial snow-making cannot fully offset the loss in natural snowfall in the Swiss Alps. (Schmidt et al., 2012) show that snow-making is less successful in lower areas, although that is the current strategy of operators in Austria (Wolfsegger et al., 2008). (Hamilton et al., 2007) highlight the importance of “backyard snow” to induce potential skiers to visit ski slopes. (Pickering et al., 2010) find that skiers in Australia prefer natural snow over artificial snow. From a series of interviews, (Hill et al., 2010) find that tourist operators in the Swiss Alps seek to maintain the status quo through adaptation, rather than search for viable alternatives to ski tourism; and argue that better coordination is needed for adaptation to be successful. (Scott and McBoyle, 2007) highlight that there are many options to adapt to a loss of snow for skiing. (Hoffmann et al., 2009) use a survey of ski lift operators in the Swiss Alps. They find that the need for adaptation exceeds the ability to adapt and that adaptation is more prevalent on higher slopes (which are less vulnerable). (Scott et al., 2006) study the impact of climate change on ski areas in eastern North America. Even with snowmaking, climate change could be an existential threat to 3 of the 6 ski areas by 2050; and climate change would lead to a contraction in each area in each scenario. (Dawson et al., 2009) use past analogues to study the impact of future climate change on ski tourism in the Northeastern USA. They find that small and very large resorts will be hit hardest, and low-lying ones. (Scott et al., 2008a) find that snowmobiling would have disappeared from the Northeastern USA by the end of the 21st century. (Mcboyle et al., 2007) find the same for the Canadian lowlands. (Matzarakis et al., 2012)Artificial snowmaking would halt the decline of ski resorts, but water scarcity and the costs of snowmaking would be increasingly large problems. (Scott et al., 2003) reach the same conclusion for southern Ontario, (Scott et al., 2007) for Quebec, and (Steiger and Mayer, 2008) for Tyrol. (Bicknell and Mcmanus, 2006) study adaptation for ski resorts in Southeastern Australia. They note that resorts may continue to be economically viable in the absence of snow by focusing on alternative activities. (Pickering and Buckley, 2010) note that artificial snow-making may be infeasible and uneconomic at the scale required to offset the loss of natural snow in Australia, and argue for a reorientation towards summer tourism and residential property development. (Moen and Fredman, 2007) find that alpine ski resorts in Sweden would become economically unviable, and that alternative livelihoods need to be developed. (Tervo, 2008) finds that the shortening of the Finnish ski season would be too limited to affect the economic viability of tourist operators. (Serquet and Rebetez, 2011) find that the Swiss Alps attract more tourists during hot summers, and argue that climate change would structurally improve the mountains as a summer tourism destination. (Matzarakis et al., 2012) also argue that a proper assessment considers all seasons, using Austria as an example. (Bourdeau, 2009) argue along the same lines for the French Alps, stressing the importance of non-tourism alternatives as a source of economic development. (Steiger, 2010) finds that stakeholders in Tyrol think that gains in summer would not fully offset losses in winter. (Potocka and Zajadacz, 2009) argue that prudent management supplies tourism services suitable for all weather. (Steiger, 2012) finds that, in the first half of this century, demographic trends are more important to skiing in Austria than climate change.

Other studies consider beach tourism. (Scott et al., 2012) highlight the vulnerability of coastal tourism facilities to sea level rise. (Hamilton, 2007) finds that tourists are averse to artificial coastlines, so that hard protection measures against sea level rise would reduce the attractiveness of an area. (Raymond and Brown, 2011) survey tourists on the Southern Fleurieu Peninsula. They conclude that tourists who are there for relaxation worry about climate change, particularly sea level rise, while tourists who are there to enjoy nature (inland) do not share that concern.  (Becken, 2005) finds that tourist operators have adapted to weather events, and argues that this helps them to adapt to climate change. (Belle and Bramwell, 2005) find that tourist operators on Barbados are averse to public adaptation policies. (Uyarra et al., 2005) find that tourists on Barbados would consider holidaying elsewhere if there is severe beach erosion. (Buzinde et al., 2010a; Buzinde et al., 2010b) find that there is a discrepancy between the marketing of destinations as pristine and the observations of tourists, at least for Mexican beach resorts subject to erosion. They conclude that tourists have a mixed response to environmental change, contrary to the officials’ view that tourists respond negatively.

Some studies focus on nature tourism. (Wall, 1998) notes the impact of climate change on water-based tourism, on the coast through sea level rise and inland through drought. (Cavan et al., 2006) find that climate change may have a negative effect on the visitor economy of the Scottish uplands as natural beauty deteriorates through increased wild fires. (Saarinen and Tervo, 2006) interviewed nature-based tourism operators in Finland, and found that about half of them do not believe that climate change is real, and that few have considered adaptation options. (Nyaupane and Chhetri, 2009) argue that climate change would increase weather hazards in the Himalayas and that this would endanger tourists. (Uyarra et al., 2005) find that tourists on Bonaire would not return if coral was bleached. (Hall, 2006) finds that small tourist operators in New Zealand do not give high priority to climate change, unless they were personally affected by extreme weather in recent times. The interviewed operators generally think that adaptation is a sufficient response to climate change for the tourism sector. (Wang et al., 2010) note that glacier tourism is particularly vulnerable to climate change, highlighting the Baishiu Glacier in China.

While the case studies reviewed above provide rich detail, it is hard to draw overarching conclusions. A few studies consider all aspects of the impact of climate change for particular countries or regions. (Ren Guoyu, 1996) shows that domestic tourism in China would shift northwards, that sea level rise would damage some tourist facilities, and that the overall impact of climate change on China’s tourist sector would be negative. (Harrison et al., 1999) conclude that climate change would make Scotland less attractive to tourists in winter but more attractive in summer. (Ceron and Dubois, 2005) assess the impact of climate change on tourism in France. They argue that the French Riviera may benefit because it is slightly cooler than the competing coastal resorts in Italy and Spain. The Atlantic Coast, although warming, would not become more attractive because of increased rainfall. The increase in summer tourism in the mountains is unlikely to offset the decrease in winter tourism. (Jones et al., 2006) study the impact of climate change on three festivals in Ottawa. They argue for heat wave preparedness for Canada Day, find that skating on natural ice may become impossible for Winterlude, and fret that the dates of the Tulip Festival may need to be shifted to reflect changing phenology. (Dawson and Scott, 2010) assess the impacts in the Great Lakes regions, finding reduced tourism potential in winter but increased opportunities in summer. (Turton et al., 2010) study Australia. They conclude that tourist operators find the uncertainty about climate change too large for early investment in adaptation.

10.6.3.    Market impacts

There are only two papers that consider the economic impacts of rather stylized climate-change-induced changes in tourism supply and demand. Both studies use a computable general equilibrium model, assessing the effects on the tourism sector as well as all other markets. (Berrittella et al., 2006) consider the consumption pattern of tourists and their destination choice. They find that the economic impact is qualitatively the same as the impact on tourist flows (discussed above): Colder countries benefit from an expanded tourism sector, and warmer countries lose. They also find a drop in global welfare, because of the redistribution of tourism supply from warmer (and poorer) to colder (and richer) countries. (Bigano et al., 2008) extend the analysis with the implications of sea level rise. The impact on tourism is limited because coastal facilities used by tourists typically are sufficiently valuable to be protected against sea level rise. The study finds that the economic impacts on the tourism sector are reinforced by the economic impacts on the coastal zone; and that the welfare losses due to the impact of climate change on tourism are larger than the welfare losses due to sea level rise.

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Rutty, M. and D. Scott, 2010: Will the Mediterranean become "Too Hot" for tourism? A reassessment. Tourism and Hospitality, Planning and Development, 7(3), 267-281.

Saarinen, J. and K. Tervo, 2006: Perceptions and adaptation strategies of the tourism industry to climate change: The case of Finnish nature-based tourism entrepreneurs. International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, 1(3), 214-228.

Schmidt, P., R. Steiger, and A. Matzarakis, 2012: Artificial snowmaking possibilities and climate change based on regional climate modeling in the Southern Black Forest. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 21(2), 167-172.

Scott, D., J. Dawson, and B. Jones, 2008a: Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation- tourism sector. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 13(5-6), 577-596.

Scott, D., S. Gössling, and C.R. De Freitas, 2008b: Preferred climates for tourism: case studies from Canada, New Zealand and Sweden. Climate Research, 38(1), 61-73.

Scott, D., S. Gössling, and C.M. Hall, 2012: International tourism and climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 3(3), 213-232.

Scott, D. and B. Jones, 2006: The impact of climate change on golf participation in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA): A case study. Journal of Leisure Research, 38(3), 363-380.

Scott, D. and B. Jones, 2007: A regional comparison of the implications of climate change for the golf industry in Canada. Canadian Geographer, 51(2), 219-232.

Scott, D., B. Jones, and J. Konopek, 2007: Implications of climate and environmental change for nature-based tourism in the Canadian Rocky Mountains: A case study of Waterton Lakes National Park. Tourism Management, 28(2), 570-579.

Scott, D. and G. McBoyle, 2007: Climate change adaptation in the ski industry. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12(8), 1411-1431.

Scott, D., G. McBoyle, and B. Mills, 2003: Climate change and the skiing industry in southern Ontario (Canada): Exploring the importance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation. Climate Research, 23(2), 171-181.

Scott, D., G. McBoyle, and A. Minogue, 2007: Climate change and Quebec's ski industry. Global Environmental Change, 17(2), 181-190.

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Scott, D., G. McBoyle, and M. Schwartzentruber, 2004: Climate change and the distribution of climatic resources for tourism in North America. Climate Research, 27(2), 105-117.

Scott, D., M.C. Simpson, and R. Sim, 2012: The vulnerability of Caribbean coastal tourism to scenarios of climate change related sea level rise. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 20(6), 883-898.

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Uyarra, M.C., I.M. Côté, J.A. Gill, R.R.T. Tinch, D. Viner, and A.R. Watkinson, 2005: Island-specific preferences of tourists for environmental features: Implications of climate change for tourism-dependent states. Environmental Conservation, 32(1), 11-19.

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Whitehead, J.C., B. Poulter, C.F. Dumas, and O. Bin, 2009: Measuring the economic effects of sea level rise on shore fishing. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 14(8), 777-792.

Wolfsegger, C., S. Gössling, and D. Scott, 2008: Climate Change Risk Appraisal in the Austrian Ski Industry. Tourism Review International, 12(1), 13-23.

WTO and UNEP, 2008: Climate Change and Tourism - Responding to Global Challenges. In: [Anonymous . World Tourism Organization, Madrid.

WTTC, 2011: Travel & Tourism 2011. In: [Anonymous . World Travel and Tourism Council, London.

Yu, G., Z. Schwartz, and J.E. Walsh, 2009a: A weather-resolving index for assessing the impact of climate change on tourism related climate resources. Climatic Change, 95(3-4), 551-573.

Yu, G., S. Zvi, and J.E. Walsh, 2009b: Effects of climate change on the seasonality of weather for tourism in Alaska. Arctic, 62(4), 443-457.

Zaninović, K. and A. Matzarakis, 2009: The bioclimatological leaflet as a means conveying climatological information to tourists and the tourism industry. International Journal of Biometeorology, 53(4), 369-374.

Response to comments: Tourism and recreation:

There were 72 comments on the first-order draft, from 8 referees. Most comments were constructive and to the point. The literature on the impact of climate change on tourism is roughly divided in three schools. Most comments (51 out of 72) were from a single referee. This referee tried to use his comments to expand the discussion of the school he represents, and to downplay the contribution of the two competing schools.

It would be worthwhile to include a brief discussion on observed impacts and their (non)attribution to climate change, even if this boils down to ackknowledging the apparent lack of literature discussing those (opposed to quite some work on future potential impacts). The discussion of the different approaches to temperature-relation of tourism patterns is very interesting in this context! RESPONSE It would indeed. However, there are no detection and attribution studies in tourism.

Section 10.6 Recreation and Tourism Following reference (synthesis and case studies) highly relevant: Climate Change and Tourism: From Policy to Practice, By Susanne Becken and John Hay; Published June 14th 2012 by Taylor and Francis/Routledge - 280 pages RESPONSE Reject: There is sufficient evidence in journal literature. No need to refer to gray literature.

section 10.6 - While much literature is synthesized in this section, it is not comprehensive of the literature. Discussion related to climate change-induced environmental change in particular needs further attention. The discussion related to the construction of 'climate indices for tourism' is irrelevant for the purposes of the IPCC and this can be removed to conserve text for reporting on empirical results of many studies that are not discussed in this FOD. Recent comprehensive reviews of the climate change and tourism literature have been completed (see below) and these citation rich resources may prove useful to the author(s) responsible for this section: Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall. (2012) International Tourism and Climate Change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 3 (3), 213-232) and the much more comprehensive book that this summary review is based on Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. (2012) Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. London: Routledge.  RESPONSE Reject proposal to exclude relevant part of peer-reviewed literature. Fine suggestion on environmental change, but no references provided. Added WIREs paper. No need to refer to book in gray literature.

section 10.6 - While the structure of this section (demand and supply sections) is intuitive, in some areas the text reads like a series of bullet points without logical structure. Understanding that this is a FOD, areas where this is particularly distracting have been identified.  RESPONSE Announcement, no response needed.
If the scale / salience of this economic sector is to be identified for IPCC readers, then provide some empirical measure of its contribution to global GDP or employment or other relevant indicators. Tourism indicators are available from organizations such as the UNWTO and WTTC for years as recent as 2010-11. While the economic value of recreation sector is more difficult to compile at this scale, illustrative examples do exist in countries like the US, Australia and perhaps members of the EU.  RESPONSE Added WTTC stats for 2011.

It is important to note here that while recreation and tourism are very important economic activities in rich (developed) countries, tourism as a proportion of GDP and employment is more important in some developing countries (especially SIDS) and is looked at as a development strategy by many more. It is in the countries where the greatest economic impact of changes in tourism are likely to be experienced (see discussion in: Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall. (2012) International Tourism and Climate Change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 3 (3), 213-232); Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. (2012) Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. London: Routledge; Gössling , S., Scott, D., Hall, M. (2009) The Challenges of Tourism as a Development Strategy in an Era of Global Climate Change. In: Rethinking Development in a Carbon-Constrained World. Development Communication. Helsinki: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. 100-119.  RESPONSE Repeat comment (#124)
If the authors wish to provide readers with a link to a recent, comprehensive, citation rich resource for this 'large literature' they might consider either of the following: Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall. (2012) International Tourism and Climate Change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 3 (3), 213-232); Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. (2012) Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. London: Routledge  RESPONSE Repeal comment (#122)

tourist resorts' - This is more aptly considered to be 'tourism operators and destination communities'. Parks, marinas and other government or business tourism operations are not necessarily 'resorts'.  RESPONSE Corrected.

A number of the references in this section have been discussed in AR4 (some TAR). Other chapters have focused on post-AR4 literature, but observed where the findings are consistent with/support AR4 findings. This approach could assist in reducing the number of citations needed in this chapter as well.  RESPONSE Removed older references where a statement is supported by older and newer references
.
A clear separartion between recreation and leisure is needed. Fishery is not recreration but leisure  RESPONSE Clarified: Leisure at home, recreation away, tourism away + overnight

Clarify this sentence. Do you mean there is no systematic analysis of the types of recreation people in different climatic zones typically participate in? There are regional analyses of recreation participation in the US and Sports Geography works that examine this to some extent. On a global scale, I would concur.  RESPONSE Added: "at large spatial scales"

In line 15 it is said that "impact of climate change on recreation is therefore unknown", while in lines 20-34 a number of case studies are presented. This sounds incosistent. Line 15 should say something like "Therefore, there is only partial knowldege on the impact of climate change on recreation".  RESPONSE Replaced "unknown" with "largely unknown"

Shaw and Loomis is a conceptual/review paper. There is no empical 'finding' of a probable increase. Instead they refer to some of the earlier work by Loomis, which is a more accurate citation here. Other studies have reached similar conclusions about a transferance of recreation patterns from certain seasonal activities to others (see list below). It should also be noted that all of these studies are in temperate nations (largely the US and Canada) and there is no such evidence in sub-tropical or tropical regions. Other sources that examine potential shifts in recreation activities because of climate change include: Scott, D. and Jones, B. (2006) Climate Change and Seasonality in Canadian Outdoor Recreation and Tourism - Executive Summary. Report prepared for the Government of Canada Climate Change Action Fund. Waterloo, Ontario: University of Waterloo. p. 28. (now also translated into Chinese 2009); Scott, D. (2011) Climate Change and a Healthy, Sustainable Environment: An Opportunity for Recreation and Parks Leadership? Commissioned paper for the National Recreation Summit (Lake Louise, October 2011). Scott, D.J., C.J. Lemieux, D. Kirchhoff and M. Melnik. (2011). Analysis of Socio-economic Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change by Québec’s Tourism Industry. Technical Report 1: Climate Change Impact Assessment: Risks and Opportunities. Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change (IC3), University of Waterloo and Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate  RESPONSE For Loomis, replaced "find" with "argue". For the rest of the comment: There is sufficient evidence in journal literature, so no need to refer to gray literature.

Another point related to this discussion about changes in outdoor recreation seasons, specifically lengthening of warm-weather recreation seasons in temperate nations, is that this change would provide additional opportunities for outdoor physcial activity. Adverse weather has been identified in the literature as a salient barrier to physical activity in temperate countries, including youth, and assuming these opportunities are utilized there would be attendent public health benefits. This recreation-health connection has been overlooked by the climate change and health literature as far as I can determine. For a discussion of this issue and related literature on weather and physical activity, see: Scott, D. (2011) Climate Change and a Healthy, Sustainable Environment: An Opportunity for Recreation and Parks Leadership? Commissioned paper for the National Recreation Summit (Lake Louise, October 2011).  RESPONSE Reject: There is sufficient evidence in journal literature. No need to refer to gray literature.

These two paragraphs need an improved structure. Perhaps organized along the lines of thediscussion in the previous paragraph about declines in winter recreation and enhanced opportunities for warm-weather recreation.  RESPONSE Reorganized, shortened and simplified the first paragraph. Kept it separate from second paragraph which is about methodological issues.

There are other studies that examine the implications of climate change for recreation patterns related to park use (urban and national/provincial-state parks, theme parks/zoos, etc) that could be incorporated into this section to stregthen its overall points.  RESPONSE Reject: No references provided.

The point that none of these studies accounts for budget constraints or changes in time available for recreation is a fair one, but the same point related to time and holiday patterns can be made of economitric studies of global tourism demand on page 20.  RESPONSE The offending clause was dropped in response to comment #134.

This point that 'some studies incorrectly claim to assess the impact of climate change … confuse weather and climate' needs to be reeaxamined. One of the studies listed as 'confusing' weather and climate, used observed park visitation data and weather data to build statistical relationships between visitation and weather conditions and then re-run the statistical model with 30 year downscaled future climate change scenarios to examine how visitation could change. This is exactly the same approach used by several studies in the preceeding paragraph (e.g., Shih et al - who use daily weather and lift ticket sales, Scott and Jones - who use daily weather and golf rounds played) and is the same statitical approach as other demand modeling, such as Maddison who builds statistical relationships between monthly temperatures and British visits to Greece (only the scale of weather data - daily, weekly, monthly varies and it needs to in order to capture the salient impact of precipitation or strong wind). Furthermore, the same principles apply to crop models and other models that use daily weather as inputs, but assess the implications of climate change. So how is it that these studies are different and somehow confuse what is weather and climate?  RESPONSE Deleted editorializing.

It is not completely clear why some tourism studies are included here in the recreation section. RESPONSE Moved.

The discussion of the potential impact of climate change-induced environmental change in these mountain parks should be organized together with a broader discussion of evidence about how climate change-induced environmental change could impact tourism demand. See the following for a critical review of this broader literature as it relates to environmental change in a range of ecosystems (glaciers and mountain landscapes, forest condition - temperate and tropical, coral reefs and dive tourism, beaches and coastal tourism, and biodiversity such as fish species, polar bears, etc): Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall. (2012) International Tourism and Climate Change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 3 (3), 213-232); Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. (2012) Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. London: Routledge;  RESPONSE Repeat comment (#122)

Other studies are available on the impact of anomolously warm (or cool) weather on tourism spending. See the following for a summary of available studies: Scott, D., Lemieux, C. (2010) Weather and climate information for tourism. Proceedia Environmental Sciences, 1, 146-183.  RESPONSE Reject: There is sufficient evidence in journal literature. No need to refer to gray literature.

Agree on the selection bias of these studies, which is a problem common to in situ surveys. Those who find the conditions objectionable / unsuitable are not there to be surveyed. Therefore, why even include these studies in this section? The point related to these references is not germane for this section.  RESPONSE Moved in response to comment #138.

Section 10.6.1.2: For some travelling choices weather/climate does not play a large role, see e.g. city tourism, where other factors dominate. This is reflected in books like "Analysing International City Tourism", edited by Josef A. Mazanec and Karl W. Wöber (2011). RESPONSE Reject: There is sufficient evidence in journal literature. No need to refer to gray literature.

The article of Amelung and Moreno (2012) on tourism impacts in Europe could be considered in this section. Those authors make an interesting assessment of summer tourism flows under future climate scenarios, based on a statistical analysis between bed nights and climate determinants with a seasonal frequency. The results include the influence of alternative adaptation options. Amelung, B. and A. Moreno, 2012: Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in europe: Results of the PESETA project. Climatic Change, 112, 83-100. RESPONSE Study added to list of other marginal papers.

To much studies before 2006  RESPONSE Older references were removed.

This long list of references for this well known point is not necessary. If a reference is desired to support this point, suggest a summary/review article reference instead. The following white paper for the sector for WCC-3 is a recent example, but others would suffice as well: Scott, D., Lemieux, C. (2010) Weather and climate information for tourism. Proceedia Environmental Sciences, 1, 146-183.  RESPONSE Older references were removed.

To add after of the first 2010) the following reference: ( … 2010; Garza et al., 2011). RESPONSE Reject: There is sufficient evidence in journal literature. No need to refer to gray literature.

There is now a growing literature on 'last chance tourism'. See papers bu Lemeling et al 2010 and a new book from Routledge (Lemelin et al. 2012). The examples of LCT are all related to environmental change (mostly climate change induced, but not all) and are not directly 'last chances' of climate or weather that this paragraph starts out discussing. Therefore need to restructure this paragraph. A critique of LCT is offered by the following that shows that beyond the destination scale there is rarely any 'last chance' for such tourism products, they are still offered elsewhere in the tourism system: Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. (2012) Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. London: Routledge;  RESPONSE Reject: There is sufficient evidence in journal literature. No need to refer to gray literature.

How is it known that tourists perfer the climates of specific regions in these three European countries? The three preceeding references provided all use country level data, so how is this regional specification determined? Is it the climate that tourists seek in these countries or culture/cuisine? The climates available in these regions are available elsewhere in the world, but international tourists only chose these regions - why? Or perhaps it is the nature of the data, that European travellers are considered 'international' tourists as they travel in the EU, while the millions of Americans or Chinese that travel to southern/warmer regions in their countries are not counted in such statistics?  RESPONSE Climate is a continuous variable allowing for higher granularity. Added that the regressions have many controls, and data are limited to international travellers.

people from hot climate care more about where they spend holidays …' - What is the evidence to support such a claim? The greatest regional tourism flows are from central-northern Europe to the Med, northern US-Canada to Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean, etc, all signifying that tourists from cooler climates care where they go (especially the hundreds of millions that take annual 'winter escape' holidays to warm locations). Tourism studies has a substantive destination choice literature and to my knowledge does not make any similar claim.  RESPONSE Evidence is in the cited paper.

Can the factors that people from hot climates care more about be specified? RESPONSE Clarified.

While Scott et al 2008 (and others - see below) do find differences in the importance rankings of climatic variables and some demographic differences (e.g., seniors versus youth), the preferences for temperature (which is the only climatic variable that Bigano et al 2006 include) are rather consistent and similar to some of the 'optimal temperatures' identified by econometric studies (though these vary substantially - e.g., Lyons et al. 2009 finds optimal temperatures to be 40C+). So I actually don't see these as that much of a contrast, rather the stated tourist climate preferences approach provides a method that can explore these climatic preferences in more detail than revealed preferences approaches can (unless daily weather data is used in a revealed study along with detail market segmentation data that is rarely available). Perhaps a more important constrast to point out is that the revealed preference studies cited must deal with tourism as a whole beacuse of the nature of the data available, while stated preference approaches can examine preferencs for specific types of destinations/major activity types (e.g., coastal/beach, urban/sightseeing-shopping, mountain/adventure) and differences among market seqments (seniors vs youth). Here important differences are found. Other stated preference studies that should be cited include: Rutty M, Scott D. Will the Mediterranean become ‘‘too hot’’ for tourism?: a reassessment. Tourism Hospit Plann Dev 2010, 7:267 – 281. Moreno A. Mediterranean tourism and climate (change): a survey-based study. Tourism Hospit Plann Dev 2010, 7:253 – 265. Credoc (2009). Climat, meteorologie et frequentation touristique, rapport final. Rapport final, julliet 29, Meie/Meeddat/Diact, p 1-93.  RESPONSE Bigano et al. finding was confirmed by Tol & Walsh and Rosello et al. (both in review). Lyons et al. did something else. Scott et al. 2008 look at three countries only. Rutty & Scott is on a different subject. Credoc is gray. Added Moreno as a third example of sampling bias.

Why the total number of international tourists falls? More discussion is needed here. In fact, there will be also new tourists from China and other Asian countries (see the findings of Hamilton and Tol, 2007). An important point is whether, even unded the worst (for Southern Europe) scenario (i.e. a scenario where the number of European tourists in southern Europe decreases as a result of climate change), the overall number of international tourists in southern europe remains stable or increases due to economic growth which brings in new tourists (mainly from Asia). In other words, does economic growth dominate climate change when examining the impacts on tourism? As it stands now, the section gives the impression that the overall size of tourism demand in Europe will remain stable and will only be split in a different way than at present between north and south, which may not be true.  RESPONSE Fall is relative to baseline without climate change.

Based on available evidence, recent reviews (listed below) have concurred with this statement that climatic change would redistribute (spatially and temporally) international and domestic tourism, but not negatively affect net tourism activity, and could actually enhance total tourism activity. The challenge relates to measuring 'tourism activity', as indicators such as spending (related to transport), distance travelled, even international trips could be lower for those in temperate countries as they are projected to stay closer to home. See discussion in: Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. (2012) Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. London: Routledge;  RESPONSE WIREs paper was added.

The approach of the used index has to be more clear and detailed. Most studies use TCI of Miezkowski (1984), which is a combination of several parameters and factros. Nowadays the quantification of climate in tourism is based on facets (thermal, aesthetic an physical). The here described index is only for the thermal component. In the Studies mentioned by Endler and Matzarakis and Endler et al. is included an integral scheme which includes all three facets. The Schme (CTIS) combines based on thresholds and the most relevant climate factors for tourism. CTIS is decribed in the studies: a) Lin, T.-P., Matzarakis, A., 2008: Tourism climate and thermal comfort in Sun Moon Lake, Taiwan. International Journal of Biometeorology 52, 281-290 and b) Zaninovic, K., Matzarakis, A., 2009: The Biometeorological Leaflet as a means conveying climatological information to tourists and the tourism industry. International Journal of Biometeorology 53, 369-374.  RESPONSE References added.

The other studies use the TCI mentioned above.  RESPONSE Space limits do not allow us to spell out which study uses what index, so we made that text less specific.

Tourism industry and tourist love the variety of offers and possibilities. A separation of winter and summer tourism is of relevance but can mislead. In my opinion it has to be included a whole year tourism assessment including the most relvant kinds of tourism and climate parameers/factors. see: Matzarakis, A., Hämmerle, M., Endler, Ch., Muthers, S., Koch, E., 2012: Assessment of tourism and recreation destinations under climate change conditions in Austria. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 21, 157-165  RESPONSE Added.

This part has to be harmonized with the part of tourism i.e. chapter Eurpe (23) etc.  RESPONSE Discussion with Chapter 23 is ongoing.

Tourism depends from weather and climate. Of interest is teh effect of climate chnage and his implications. But tourism suffers more from extreme events like heat waves (link to health) and stroms (damage of infracructure). See: Scott, D., C.R. de Freitas, Matzarakis, A., 2009: Adaptation in the tourism and recreation sector. In: G. R. McGregor, I. Burton, K. Ebi (Eds.), Biometeorology for Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change. Springer, 171-194.  RESPONSE Reject: There is sufficient evidence in journal literature. No need to refer to gray literature.

Section 10.6.2 misses one aspect of climate change and tourism, that of inter-annual variability or 'seasonality'. This is most important when considering the effects of climate/weather induced extreme events that happen to strike during key season-specific tourism at the destination level. Some suggestions for literature that specifically talk about tourism and seasonality in this context include: (1) Roman, C.E., Lynch, A.H., & Dominey-Howes, D. (2011). “What is the goal? Framing the climate change adaptation question through a problem-oriented approach”. American Meteorological Society’s Weather, Climate & Society, 3(1): 16-30; (2) Roman, C.E., Lynch, A.H., & Dominey-Howes, D. (2010). “Uncovering the Essence of the Climate Adaptation Problem - a Case Study of the Tourism Sector at Alpine Shire, Victoria, Australia”. Tourism and Hospitality Planning & Development, 7(3): 237-252; and (3) Roman, C., & McEvoy, D. (2011). Kailash Sacred Landscape Conservation Initiative (KSLCI) Strengthening Project - Nepal. Climate Change and Tourism - Final Report. Melbourne: Climate Change Adaptation Program, Global Cities Research Institute, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University (avaliable from http://global-cities.info/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/KSL_tourism-Nepal_FINAL_report.pdf ). RESPONSE Reject: These papers are not about seasonality.

so-called biometeorological studies' - Why 'so-called'? Is this meant as an insult to these types of studies or that the author(s) are not sure what to call this type of index based research? I would contend the 'biometeorological' is not a useful term, as many academic disciplines have contributed to this work, and most would not call themselves 'biometeorologists'. The more state of the art indices available that are to some extent validated with tourists perceptions of weather/climate are informed as much by psychology as biometeorology.  RESPONSE "so-called" dropped

This discussion of the use of climate indices to explore how climate resources for tourism have changed or are projected to change as a result of climate change needs to be better organized and perhaps more critical (see subsequent points and further discussion in Scott et al. 2012), although some of that is incorporated in the following paragraph. The work on how climate resources in some destination has changed over the last 50 years could logically come first, followed by literature that looks at the potential longer term evolution of climate resources (including spatial and temporal patterns). Some of what is discussed here was discussed in AR4 and could be made more consise with 'consistent with AR4 ...'.  RESPONSE Reject: Thematic organization better than chronological one.

Scott et al. 2004 did not say Florida and Arizona 'would lose market share' as their work is not a demand model. They indicated the climate resources in these destinations (as well as Mexico) would have new competition from other coastal states with improved climatic conditions over some key 'winter getaway' holiday months.  RESPONSE Reject: Paper's conclusion consistently rephrased.

Perry (2006) only speculates (not 'notes) as he has no empirical data to support this claim that the heat wave of 2003 negatively impacted the Med region. Those who have compiled antedotal evidence about visitation patterns and spending in France argue the opposite, that coastal areas benefitted from the 2003 heat wave as more people desired to escape the affected cities. See discussion on the impact of extremes in: Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. (2012) Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. London: Routledge;  RESPONSE Changed as proposed.

These sentences on the work of Endler and Matzarakis provide no insight into the potential impacts of climate change for tourism and should be deleted. This biometeorological work has little relevance to tourism and has never been published in tourism journals.  RESPONSE Reject: This is a respectable branch of literature published in reputable journals.

Again is there a need to distunguish what has been included in AR4 versus newer work, which I concur largely reinforces previous findings, but with the benefit of having addressed some of the criticisms and alarmist statements related to the work of Amelung and Viner 2006). The following have also pointed out that these index works do not adequately consider the micro-climate aspects of coastal tourism destinations/resorts (i.e., moderating coastal breezes) and when these are factored in, the claims about the Med region as a single destination becoming 'too hot' in summer are incorrect. It is the coastal urban areas that are most at risk (where tourists seek cooler thermal conditions than for beach tourism and where urban heat islands occur), but some are already 'too hot' and tourists still frequent these destinations. This provides an additional interpretation of local scale impacts to that of Giannakopoulas et al. (and somewhat contradictory). See the following for empirical analysis of impact of microclimate coastal breezes (and the basis for coastal cooling estimates from comparisons of coastal and inland stations in Italy and Greece): Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. (2012) Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. London: Routledge;  RESPONSE Reject: AR4 barely mentioned tourism. There is sufficient evidence in journal literature. No need to refer to gray literature.

sunbathers like it hot' - This is supported by the stated preference work cited in the previous section, including: Scott et al. 2008; Rutty M, Scott D. Will the Mediterranean become ‘‘too hot’’ for tourism?: a reassessment. Tourism Hospit Plann Dev 2010, 7:267 – 281. Moreno A. Mediterranean tourism and climate (change): a survey-based study. Tourism Hospit Plann Dev 2010, 7:253 – 265. Credoc (2009). Climat, meteorologie et frequentation touristique, rapport final. Rapport final, julliet 29, Meie/Meeddat/Diact, p 1-93.  RESPONSE White references added.

Perch-Nielsen 2010 uses more than meteorological indicators, but attempts to incorporate sea level rise and other indicators as well (to the extent these are possible at a country scale).  RESPONSE That is exactly what the text says.

For an updated critique of index based studies (rather than biometeorological studies) see: Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. (2012) Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. London: Routledge. Again, I do not see the AR5 as the place to discuss the details of the critque of this literature (any more than for the econometric modeling approaches). These discussions need to take place elsewhere where sufficient depth is permitted. In AR5 a synthesis and comparison of their respective agreed upon findings should be the objective. As indicated, it is my view that they largely arrive at similar broad scale conclusions that support the statement on pg3-ln37-38, with varied nuances about seasonal patterns of impact and details on which market segments/destinations types are most at risk.  RESPONSE Reject: There is sufficient evidence in journal literature. No need to refer to gray literature.

These stated preference (survey based) as well as revealed preference (web cam images) studies of weather preferences should be mentioned in the previous section together with the work of Scott et al. 2008 (and the other similar studies identified) with regard to our understanding of preferred climatic conditions and critical thresholds of unacceptability. These should inform the construction of indices to rate climate resources for tourism and do in some cases (de Freitas et al 2008 and newer work by some of these authors), but not others (Endler and Matzarakis).  RESPONSE Reject: Current structure separates results from critique to highlight latter

The discussion of tourism operator/stakeholder perceptions of climate change risks and adaptation action (taken/planned) is disbursed on these pages (see previous point on Beck and Belle and Bramwell based sentence). Suggest they be organized into one discussion/paragraph. See the following for a review of the broader available literature: Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall. (2012) International Tourism and Climate Change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 3 (3), 213-232).  RESPONSE Reject: Separation of impacts and adaptation is inappropriate, as is separation of planned and actual adaptation.

This point could be clarified further. RESPONSE Space constraints prevent elaboration.

Actually the earilest papers on climate change and skiing were published in the mid-late 1980s by Wall and McBoyle. For a critical review of the climate change and ski tourism literature (as of 2011) see: Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. (2012) Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. London: Routledge; a more concise (and somewhat updated) review is available in Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall. (2012) International Tourism and Climate Change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 3 (3), 213-232);  RESPONSE Reject: Older references to be cut not added.

This paragraph related to impacts on winter sports tourism (mainly skiing and snowmobiling) needs restructuing (separate snowmobiling out - put at the end - as the impacts to it are qualitatively different than skiing and it is only a North American tourism market). As elsewhere in this section, some further consideration about the necessary inclusion of pre-AR4 references (especially for very generic statements such as the opening sentence) is required in my view.  RESPONSE Reject: Given the space constraints, we cannot separately assess the components of ski tourism.

In the ski tourism hilly and lower lying mountainous areas shcould be incuded. For black forest and artificial snow making will not be relevant after 20-30 years and should be communicated. See: Schmidt, P., Steiger, R., Matzarakis, A., 2012: Artificial snowmaking possibilities and climate change based on regional climate modeling in the Southern Black Forest. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 21, 167-172  RESPONSE Added.

cannot fully offset' - Elsasser and Burki 2002 speculate this, but offer no empirical analysis of this. In contrast, a number of newer works that focus on potential snowmaking opportunities and more credibly, studies with physical-based snow models that assess available natural snow and required snowmaking (and whether it can be made climatically) arrive at similar conclusions for low-lying ski areas in the European Alps (that distinction is important!). See the work of Steiger 2010 and 2011 in Tyrol in particular. Hamilton et al. 2007 does not reach a similar conclusion in New England, because again they do not utilized a physically based snow model. Their study examines natural snow cover (not with snowmaking) and ski visits and provides not insight into the capacity of ski areas to make sufficient snow. That said there are a number of studies in New England that do utilize a physically based snow model or analogue winters to assess the impact on season lengths and snowmaking requirements: Scott, D., Dawson, J. and Jones, B. (2008) Climate change vulnerability of the Northeast US winter tourism sector. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies to Global Change, 13 (5-6), 577-596. Dawson, J, Scott, D, McBoyle, G. (2009) Analogue Analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability in the US Northeast Ski Tourism. Climate Research, 39 (1), 1-9. Dawson, J. and Scott, D. (2012) Managing for Climate Change in the Alpine Ski Sector. Tourism Management.  RESPONSE Changed "point out" to "argue". Ref to Hamilton rephrased. See comment #174.

backyard snow' - Others have referred to this phenomena as well (in the European Alps and Eastern Canada), but more importantly, this needs to be explained if it is deemed important enough to include in AR5 (I don't think so personally). It is the presence of snow cover in urban markets (the suburbs of Boston, Montreal, Denver, etc) that is thought to inspire demand for skiing and even if snow is present at the ski areas in the mountains, if it is not also in the cities, demand will be depressed. Interestingly, while ski area management have allueded to this effect, a study of snow conditions at ski areas and in Montreal could not demonstrate this effect statistically with daily or weekly skier visits at 5 nearby ski areas: Scott, D.J., C.J. Lemieux, D. Kirchhoff and M. Melnik. (2011). Analysis of Socio-economic Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change by Québec’s Tourism Industry. Technical Report 1: Climate Change Impact Assessment: Risks and Opportunities. Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change (IC3), University of Waterloo and Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate  RESPONSE Reject: There is sufficient evidence in journal literature. No need to refer to gray literature.

For additional perspectives on the climate change risk perceptions and adaptation plans of ski area managers, see also: Wolfsegger, C., Gössling , S., Scott, D. (2008) Climate change risk appraisal in the Austrian ski industry. Tourism Review International, 12 (1), 13-25.  RESPONSE Added.

For a summary of newer work on the potential impact on US and Canada ski tourism markets see: Scott, D. and Steiger, R. (2012) Climate Vulnerability of the Ski Industry. In: Climate Vulnerability. (Eds) Roger Pielke Sr.. Elsevier, San Diego. Scott, D., McBoyle, G., Minogue, A. (2007) The implications of climate change for the Québec ski industry, Global Environmental Change, 17, 181-190. Scott, D., Dawson, J. and Jones, B. (2008) Climate change vulnerability of the Northeast US winter tourism sector. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies to Global Change, 13 (5-6), 577-596. Dawson, J, Scott, D, McBoyle, G. (2009) Analogue Analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability in the US Northeast Ski Tourism. Climate Research, 39 (1), 1-9. Dawson, J. and Scott, D. (2012-accepted) Managing for Climate Change in the Alpine Ski Sector. Tourism Management. This body of literature and ski tourism globally is also critically reviewed in: Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall. (2012) International Tourism and Climate Change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 3 (3), 213-232);  RESPONSE Reject newest paper: There is sufficient evidence in journal literature. No need to refer to gray literature. Other papers not new.

For these statements, the author team should specify the relevant climate/socio-economic scenarios as supported by the literature. RESPONSE Reject: Assessment was drafted as an example of robust findings across scenarios, and details of specific scenarios are not relevant.

Dawson et al analogue study found that the smallest and 'low lying' ski areas were the hardest hit by recent record warm winters. This finding is coorborated by analogue study in Tyrol by Steiger (2011).  RESPONSE Added.

Further to this discussion of the impact on snowmobiling, see the following study that focuses on regions of Canada and further explains why this winter sports market is far more vulnerable (snowmaking over thousands of km of trails is technically and economically not practical): McBoyle, G., Scott, D., Jones, B. (2007) Climate change and the future of snowmobiling in non-mountainous regions of Canada. Managing Leisure, 12 (4), 237-250.  RESPONSE Reference added.

The work of Moen and Fredman (and some others in this field) are unsound methodologically (see critical reviews of this field by Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall. (2012) International Tourism and Climate Change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 3 (3), 213-232) and should not be included in AR5. At least not without important caveats, which typically space is not available for.  RESPONSE Reject: Published in reputable journal.

The climatic opportunities provided to mountain destinations in warm-weather months is important (and is also discussed in some of the climate index work as well as the mountain park work of Scott et al 2008 as well as Richardson and Loomis). However, tourism stakeholders in the Alps have made it clear that they do not see this as a equal replacement for the potential loss of ski tourism. See discussion by Steiger (2010, 2011) and stakeholder quotes from forthcoming publications in Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. (2012) Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. London: Routledge;  RESPONSE Added.

Phillips and Jones 2006 point out the obvious potential impacts of climate change/sea level rise for coastal tourism (as did Wall in the early 1990s and Gable in the late 1980s/early 1990s), but provide no insight into the magnitude, timing or geography of potential impacts. For a review of the available literature that provides insight into the potential impacts of sea level rise on coastal tourism, see the review in Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall. (2012) International Tourism and Climate Change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 3 (3), 213-232);  RESPONSE Agreed, and older reference at that: Removed

This sentence on the work of Becken and Belle and Bramwell is a different topic. For a broader literature about how tourism operators and officials worldwide see the risk of climate change and the need for/plans for adaptation, see the reviews of: Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall. (2012) International Tourism and Climate Change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 3 (3), 213-232); and Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. (2012) Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. London: Routledge;  RESPONSE Reject: Becken sentence is paraphrased from her abstract. Ditto for Belle and Bramwell.
official preconcpetions' - please elaborate on what is meant by this. Buckley (2008) discusses how speculation on sea level rise impacts has been misused by town councils in Australia, which may be the point being made here.  RESPONSE Speficied: Negative response.

are not deterred by environmental change' - While I agree that tourists are far more robust to environmental change (evidence from multiple ecosystems - as summarized in Scott et al. (2012) - WIRE - Climate Change), that is a debatable interpretation from the citations provide. The studies cited found 3 groups of tourist responses, those that felt cheated by marketing, those who were largely indifferent, and those who understood and accepted the adaptive responses of resorts to stop further erosion despite the aesthetic impact. They do NOT know what proportion these three groups represent and the beach was still more than 50% pre-hurricane impact, which will not be the case after prolonged erosion from sea level rise. Furthermore, in this same study area (but perhaps not discussed in these papers), tour operators demanded immediate discounts to send tourists there (30% I was told), which changes the economics of these resorts (no longer profitable in some cases), there were criminal cases filed for illegal sand mining to try to repair the beach, and Cancun evetually invested over $80million to nourish the beach. These are hardly trivial impacts. I suggest the author(s) of this section also see the discussion on studies on the impact of SLR on beaches in California and North Carolina as but two other studies that reinforce this point (all are discussed in the coastal tourism section of the review paper by Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall. (2012) International Tourism and Climate Change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 3 (3), 213-232).  RESPONSE Rephrased. Response is mixed.

For further discussion of the literature on the response of dive tourists and diver tourism operators to coral bleaching see Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall. (2012) International Tourism and Climate Change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 3 (3), 213-232).  RESPONSE Reject: Overview paper is inappropriate reference for such a specific point.

What makes these case studies presented in this para is the fact that (a) they deal with a whole country or (b) that they also look at all forms of tourism and thus can assess the impacts of climate change during the whole annual cycle? In my view, it is (b) and in fact a combination of both (a) and (b) that is needed and should be highlighted here. In addition, what are the main assumptions made in the case studies that examine potential shifts of tourist activities in a region as a result of climate change? These assumptions should be clearly mentioned here.  RESPONSE Assessment was drafted as an example of robust findings across scenarios, and details of specific scenarios are not relevant.

While fully appreciate the effort to integrate supply and demand response to climate change in this sector, and encourage further collaborative work in this area, it needs to be acknowledged that at the country scale, such models are not able to adequately articulate destination level impacts (particularly climate change induced environmental changes). Innovative approaches to better understand system level impacts on tourism have been strongly encouraged by a number of authors, but see the following for one recent example: Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall. (2012) International Tourism and Climate Change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews – Climate Change, 3 (3), 213-232).  RESPONSE Added "rather stylized" to first sentenced.

sufficiently valuable' - This is context specific (a row of major resorts vs stand alone, isolated resort). See also the discussion on the special circumstances of coastal tourism and coastal protection versus beach nourishment in the references below. Protection may preserve resort infrastructure, but coastal squeeze will result in eventual loss of highly valuble beach assest and the economic impact of the loss of beach is clear when coastal vs inland resorts or even ocean view vs inland views are considered. This aesthetic perspectives are also discussed in the references below: Hamilton J. Coastal landscape and the hedonic price of accommodation. Ecol Econ 2007, 62:594 – 602. Scott, D. Sim, R., Simpson, M. (2012) Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Resorts in the Caribbean. Journal of Sustainable Tourism. 20 (6). 883-898 Scott, D., Gössling, S., Hall, C.M. (2012) Climate Change and Tourism: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. London: Routledge;  RESPONSE Added "typically". Hamilton already referred to above. Added ref to Scott et al. in JOST.